Correspondents: Morgan Beatty, Leon Pearson, Bryson Rash, Alex Dreier, Robert McCormick, Elmer Peterson, Richard Harkness.
Producer: James L. Holton.
Announcer: Gene Hamilton.

     ANNOUNCER. The Countdown - X Minus Forty.

 VOICE (simulated intercom with rocket firing in background). Four, three, two, one.

ANNOUNCER. NBC News presents "Election Countdown," coast to coast, the first in a series of weekly campaign progress reports from around the Nation, as the 1960 presidential election day approaches. Our two anchor men in Radio Central are NBC commentators, Morgan Beatty and Leon Pearson. Here's their roundup report, 40 days before E-day.
     BEATTY. This is Morgan Beatty
     PEARSON. And Leon Pearson.
     BEATTY. We are beginning an electronic numbers game - a survey, as it looks tonight, of the presidential election campaign that will wind up 40 days from now with the election. Now, the numbers we'll be talking about involve the 537 electoral votes cast by the Nation's electoral college, which will officially determine whether the next President will be Richard M. Nixon or John F. Kennedy. The winner will be the candidate who gets the simple majority of these votes, or 269. Each State has a certain number of votes based on its representation in the Congress, and all the votes for each State are cast in the electoral college for the candidate who polls the majority of the popular vote in each State.
     PEARSON. You'll recall the occasion - 1888, it was - when Grover Cleveland won the national popular vote by some hundred thousand over Benjamin Harrison, but Harrison became President because his popular votes represented 233 electoral votes, while the apparent winner, Cleveland, got only 168 votes in the electoral college.
     BEATTY. Yes, indeed. We've divided the country into five geographical areas - the Northeast, the South (including the so-called border States), the Southwest, the Midwest, and the West Coast - including Alaska and Hawaii. We'll have reports based on the latest available information on how these regions are reacting to the campaigns of the two major candidates, and the local issues, which probably will be major factors. Let's begin with the South. Bryson Rash reporting.
     RASH. I've been assigned to the old "solid South" east of the Mississippi, plus Louisiana and Arkansas and the border States of Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Maryland. One hundred and forty-four all-important electoral votes are the prize in this area. Both candidates want all of them. Either would settle for a goodly number. Neither can count on that result. Hence, a major battleground in 1960. Gone, perhaps, forever are the days when a Democratic candidate started his private tabulation with the electoral votes of the South and aimed his campaign efforts at other areas of the Nation to pick up the required majority. In 1956, the Republican candidate, Dwight D. Eisenhower, won almost half of the electoral votes of the 14 States under discussion - his total was 70. He did not do as well in 1952, winning 55 electoral votes. The question is: Can the 1960 Republican candidate, Richard M. Nixon, do as well as Dwight D. Eisenhower? Perhaps not. But all indications are that he will do well enough to make the Democrats long for the "good old days." There are a number of reasons for the shift in political chemistry from the solid to the fluid state. One is the growing industrialization of the South and its attendant interest in economic and welfare issues.
     Southern political leaders, who loudly proclaim their defiance of civil rights advances publicly, will admit, in the bosom of their family, that the Republican and Democratic positions are just about the same and the issue is all but over. But looking at the other planks in the party platform, they shudder visibly at some of the advanced notions of the Democrats in the economic and welfare fields. Hence, the Republican hoax. Then, there are the hurt feelings which exist among southern Democrats - hurt that the national party leadership would ignore them and their principles an civil rights and economics, after all the lean years when that area was the bedrock of the party. But, above all, in this election year is the religious .issue. No matter how sincere and persistent the candidates and their aides are in downgrading this fact, it exists and is a basic consideration in evaluating the voters' mood in the South and the border areas. It is no more measurable than a dark cloud on the far horizon. But, as the cloud, the religious issue is liable to grow and cover the entire area. Breaking down this 14 State sector, Democrat Kennedy seems safe in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Missouri, South Carolina for 60 electoral votes. Republican Nixon is ahead in Florida and Virginia - in the latter State because of the silence of Senator Harry F. Byrd. There are 22 votes in these two States. The undecided States, then, are Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, North Carolina, Tennessee, and West Virginia. These States hold the balance of power in the South and border areas with 62 of the 144 electoral votes.
     PEARSON. Well, Morgan, I'll keep track of these estimates - and let me emphasize "estimates" - as we go along. Bryson Rash estimates 22 electoral votes for Nixon; 60 for Kennedy; and 62 somewhere in the middle, in his survey of the South. Now, let's get our Midwest report. Alex Dreier is standing by.

     DREIER. This is the heart of the Nation - this Midwest, the steel giant, the automaker, and the corn king. But the consensus on the part of the big and little people who make it go seems to be the traditional "Wait and see." Wait for what? Wait for either candidate, either Senator Kennedy or Vice President Nixon to catch fire, to demonstrate beyond any doubt, that one or the other has got the real answers to some of the most. vexing problems that have ever perplexed the Middle West.
     Take the farmer. At times the farmer suspects everybody would like to take him, in one way or another. He has watched Mr. Nixon and Mr. Kennedy on television and he has read the texts of their speeches in his favorite daily and weekly newspapers. But he is still in the position of the confused novitiate at the religious revival. He finds himself stumbling over the vague and lofty phrases and unable to resist an urge to yell, "Spell it out; make it plain, brother." The Middle West farmer is happy that both candidates are so concerned with his welfare, but he is still hanging onto the hope that one or the other is going to make clear exactly what he intends to do. A few things they do know for certain: They know that the old programs have not worked, and they blame Secretary Benson for that. Nixon has dropped Benson like a plowed under potato, but Kennedy has not come up with a panacea, either. Kennedy talks about restoring supply and demand in proper proportion; Nixon would hold up farm prices by indemnifying the farmer; but neither man has yet shown that he can start a rush to the polls by hard-pressed farmers who don't want Government in farming, but can't do without its help, either. In the big industrial centers in and around Chicago and Detroit and other Midwest cities, optimism is conspicuous by its absence. Kennedy has pointed out that steel production is at only 50 percent of capacity, but that's no news to the steelworkers. any have been feeling the pinch for long months. The autoworkers are worried, too, and used cars are beginning to crowd the lots - certainly, no despair in these areas, but some apprehension, to be sure. Business? In general it's pretty good; but you can't find a businessman, big or small, who won't admit he's seen better days - much better days - and is anxious for a return to them. And, as far as consumers are concerned, the cost of living continues to skyrocket, while labor and management negotiations continue to be almost as tight as credit. The Middle West has dropped its "isolationism"; but in its place, remains a cautious cynicism, a sort of "show me" attitude. They have heard Mr. Nixon and Mr. Kennedy. They have listened to the generalities and ambitious promises. Now they want more specifics - not "We will get back into full production," but "How?" Not "We will solve the problem," but "When?" Not "More of everything for everybody," but "In what way?" So at this moment, no decision, just indecision; and at stake - those fat 115 electoral votes that could make all the difference.
     BEATTY. Alex, those 115 electoral votes in the Midwest - how would you break them down as of tonight?
     DREIER. It's all very "iffy," of course. If the big city Chicago Democratic machine can deliver Illinois, and if the Michigan Democratic Party and liberal Minnesota go Kennedy the Senator can pick up all the marbles, if the farm votes help a little - all ifs. So an inexpert guess: Kennedy, 58 ; Nixon, 45 ; undecided, 12 ; or maybe it would be more accurate to say they're all undecided. But you can't take a survey that way, huh, Morgan ?

     BEATTY. No; you can't, Alex. But, let me point out to our listeners again that this is only the way the picture looks tonight - 40 days before election.
     PEARSON. Well, the way Alex Dreier sizes up the Midwest, Morgan, he sees 58 electoral votes for Kennedy, 45 for Nixon, and States representing 12 votes in neither camp. So, the first two areas both report Kennedy ahead. Next, four States in the Southwest. Robert McCormick reporting.

     MCCORMICK. The religious issue may, this time, give the Republican presidential ticket a victory in normally Democratic Texas. The Democratic Party in Texas has always included numbers of people whose reflexes are more nearly what we consider Republican. But this year the Democratic leadership is, perhaps, more closely united behind the Democratic ticket than at any time since 1952, or maybe even 1948. Every elected Democratic official is supporting Kennedy and Johnson. Yet, Nixon and Lodge have a very good chance of getting the State's 24 electoral votes; and stark emotional anti-Catholicism is the distinguishing characteristic of the campaign. Some observers think the situation is worse than it was in 1928.
     There have been many rumors about organized financing behind the movement, but little evidence. Kennedy's forthright statements and Lyndon Johnson's impassioned appeals for objectivity have done little good. Yet, Johnson is still the big noise in Texas. He will unquestionably be overwhelmingly reelected to the Senate - He's running for that simultaneously with the Vice Presidency - And there are other issues working against the Democrats in Texas; such as, the civil rights position and the party's vague situation on the oil-depletion tag allowance. Nixon and the Republicans are noisily in favor of continuing the allowance. The Democrats are somewhat equivocal. But oilmen, who might have contributed heavily to the Republicans, have been inhibited by the presence of Lyndon Johnson, one of their very best friends, on the Democratic ticket. So, actually, everything about evens out, except the question of religion. The intense heat of that issue has reached over into Oklahoma, with eight electoral votes. And in Oklahoma, anti-Catholicism also is vocal. And this issue comes on top of severe internal fights in the Democratic Party. Senator Kerr was for Johnson at the Los Angeles convention. Senator Monroney was a lonely, but dedicated, tub thumper for Adlai Stevenson. Governor Edmondson supported Kennedy, but he was having trouble himself, barely made the State delegation to the convention, carrying a mere half vote. Since then, on the 20th of this month, he was clobbered in referendums on three reform measures he was trying to push through. The problem of religion has had some effect also in eastern New Mexico, but, otherwise, the State and its four electoral votes seem fairly well solidified for the Democrats. Veteran Senator Anderson has been doing considerable stumping, and Senator Chavez has organized effective "Viva Kennedy" clubs among the people of Mexican backgrounds. In Arizona, also four votes, the oldtime Democratic leaders, such as McFarland and Hayden, have recovered from the wounds that Kennedy's energetic young men inflicted when they took over the State organization before the convention and comparatively, at least, things are fairly quiet.

     PEARSON. So McCormick's Southwest estimate is 32 for Nixon, 8 votes for Kennedy.
     BEATTY. Elmer Peterson is on our Far West beat. Here's his report now.

     PETERSON. With a total of 77 electoral votes, the 11 Far West States, including Hawaii and Alaska, will have a strong voice in the choice of a President. California, alone, has 32 votes and could easily, as happened in 1948, be the deciding factor in a close national contest.  So far, with 6 weeks to go, no sweeping trend has developed for either Vice President Nixon or Senator Kennedy. California is still cool to both candidates. There are no signs that either candidate really has caught fire in the Far West. But Nixon does seem to have a slight edge, for the moment, in California, due in part to some feuding within the Democratic Party, a better financial setup for the Republicans in southern California, and a tendency, up until recently, for diehard Adlai Stevenson supporters to demonstrate less than full enthusiasm for Senator Kennedy. In Alaska, it looks as though Kennedy may win big; while in Hawaii, where Nixon made a campaign visit, the Republicans have a seeming advantage. So that these two new States, each with three electoral votes, may well cancel each other out, in the final result. As it stands, firm predictions are hard to come by. The Far West went solidly for President Eisenhower 4 years ago, then staged a strong swing to the Democrats in 1958. Right now, the Far West is clearly on center, capable of swinging either way. Last-minute international developments, last-minute campaigning, and the religious issue could force the swing. Numerically, the Democrats hold the advantage. In California, Democrats outnumber the Republicans, 3 to 1. To win, Nixon needs a batch of Republican votes; so it depends on how far the Democrats can get a real party line vote; how far Nixon can appeal to conservative Democrats and the massive free-wheeling independent vote in California. To his advantage, 60 percent of California voters live in southern California, his home political stronghold. Meantime, the polls vary.
     One recent California survey - a nonpartisan effort - showed 49 percent for Nixon, 44 for Kennedy; 7 percent undecided. A poll in Huntington Park, a bellwether southern California community, last week showed Kennedy favored by 40.5 percent, Nixon by 37.2 percent, with 22.3 percent undecided. At this time it looks as though Nixon has a thin edge in Oregon with six electoral votes; in Colorado with six votes; Utah with four; Hawaii with three. Kennedy has an apparent slim advantage in Washington with nine; Montana with four; Wyoming with three; Idaho with four; Alaska with three; Nevada with three. If the election were to be held tomorrow, as one reads the available signs, Nixon might, including California, come through with 51 electoral votes against 26 for Kennedy. But there are 6 weeks to go with voter decision in the Far West far from final, and with both sides confident of final victory.

     PEARSON. Well, that big California bloc of votes, as Elmer Peterson views the Far West, will give the Vice President a total of 51 electoral votes from that region to Kennedy's 26. So these two areas - the last two areas reported - show Nixon in the lead.
     BEATTY. And that brings us to the region that very likely will hold the key to the election - the Northeast. Here's the outlook tonight from Richard Harkness.

     HARKNESS. It is no coincidence that the Vice President and the Senator are campaigning in the East tonight, finally taking off the kid gloves, and becoming personal; for it is here in this area - in New England and the Middle Atlantic States - that Nixon or Kennedy will win or lose this election. Nixon, for instance, is in Boston, in Massachusetts, the home State of his opponent. Earlier today he had stumped on Long Island, then in Vermont and New Hampshire. Well, tonight, in his Boston address, Nixon strikes the hardest blow yet at Kennedy. He calls the Senator's performance in the recent Congress a "monumental failure." Nixon says that the Democratic candidate's "gaping performance gap" will bring his defeat for President in November.
     For Kennedy's part, he is in Syracuse, N.Y., this evening, and he has had a full day - a speech on the State Capitol steps in Albany, and then a motorcade through New York's Mohawk Valley. And, like Nixon, Kennedy is becoming personal. He jeers tonight, for instance, at what he calls Nixon's "glowing, sugarcoated" assurances that we are ahead of Russia in arms, science, and space. Now, off a cold, political analysis, the candidates have sufficient reason for descending from the high campaign road. Massachusetts has 16 electoral votes - a bloc now put in the Kennedy column - and Nixon wants those votes. Likewise, Kennedy knows that ex-President Truman is the only candidate in recent years to win without New York. He knows that Eisenhower carried the State by a million and a half votes in '56 and that Rockefeller swamped Harriman in '58. And Kennedy is carrying the fight to the Republicans in their nominal stronghold - upstate New York. Altogether, taking New England, plus the Middle Atlantic States, the total electoral college vote here is 161. Well, Mr. Eisenhower carried every one of those States, 4 years ago. Now, Democrats feel confident that they will make some heavy inroads into the area; and there are valid political reasons for reporting that the confidence is not misplaced. Actually, the experts of both parties say it is too early to put States in this camp or that, but, from current reports, than from past performances, this is the best rundown I can get as of this evening. Give Maine, Vermont, and New Hampshire to Vice President Nixon for 12 electoral votes; but Kennedy's outlook is best in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut. So, if this guess is right, give Kennedy 28 in the electoral college. But it is in New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey that you get down to brass tacks; and no one at this stage is claiming New York State, not even a definite lead. Neither side professes optimism over Pennsylvania at this stage. Right now, personally, I wouldn't even wager the hole in the doughnut. But, with campaigns such as Nixon and Kennedy are waging this evening, a trend may develop shortly.

     BEATTY. With all the action in these key Northeastern States, perhaps we'll be able to perceive a trend soon. Leon, check me if our figures are correct. Richard Harkness left 121 of those mighty important votes from the key eastern industrial States still a tossup.
     PEARSON. Right, Morgan. From New York across to Ohio, there's a huge question mark. His rundown did give Kennedy 28 possible votes; Nixon 12. Now, my totals look like this after checking out our correspondents in the five national regions representing the 50 States. As of tonight, Kennedy appears to be ahead in States representing 180 electoral votes; Nixon ahead in States representing 162. And a huge bloc of 195 votes still very much uncertain. In other words, the largest bloc is the uncertain bloc - Kennedy, 180 ; Nixon, 162. Now, where, Morgan, do you think the uncertainty lies? What's the cause of this?
     BEATTY. Well, I think the uncertainty lies in, perhaps, the religious issue, first, and the economic pulling and hauling, second, and finally, and I think most importantly, the international uncertainty. And I'd like to point out that we haven't covered a very strange mystery that's appearing in these registration figures we get from the various States. As you know, Leon, many States do not give us good, sound registration figures. The secretaries of state give us estimates from many States. Yet, in certain specific areas, we do get figures. For example, they have just complete, as I've noted in my travels, registration in Montgomery County, Md., and in Prince Georges County.
     PEARSON. You lived in Montgomery, I believe.
     BEATTY. Yes, I did. And also, Prince Georges is next door, just next to Washington. Now, the trend is the same as usual in registration. Two to one Democratic in Prince Georges; three to two Democratic in Montgomery County; and an added mystery. There are more registrations in proportion to the voting eligibility in those States - more than they were even when Eisenhower was running. And let's point out that, even though the Democrats have a tremendous edge in those areas, Eisenhower carried both of them - carried Maryland, certainly.
     PEARSON. Well, are you arguing, Morgan, that higher registration - let me put the question this way: Do you think that either party benefits from an increased registration? I say this because I noticed recently, evidence of great effort by both parties, but particularly by the Democrats, to get out the vote. Because they seem to think that they will benefit more than the Republicans by an increased registration, an increased pattern.
     BEATTY. That is certainly true in the industrial areas, and they have a very efficient "get-out-the-vote" campaign through labor unions that are very frankly supporting Kennedy. But I think in the past, for example in the case of President Eisenhower, he pulled out 20 million extra votes in 1952 and again in 1958, and he got 15 million of them.
     PEARSON. Well, this big uncertain bloc is something we'll be watching as the next week comes up.
     BEATTY. Right. Thus is Morgan Beatty and Leon Pearson, NBC News.
     ANNOUNCER. You have been listening to "Election Countdown," coast to coast, a continuing weekly report on the 1960 presidential election campaign. Listen every Thursday night until election day at this same time to the NBC station for further coast-to-coast progress reports on the campaign. You'll hear from NBC staff reporters and newsmen from NBC affiliated, stations. Next week - X Minus Thirty-three.

     VOICE (simulated intercom with rocket firing in background). * * * Four, three, two, one.

     ANNOUNCER. This series has been an NBC news special program, James L. Holton, producer. Gene Hamilton speaking.