Correspondents: Merrill Mueller, Leon Pearson, Herb Kaplow, Frank Bourgholtzer.
Guests: Roger Tubby, Robert Finch, Samuel Lubell.
Producer: James L. Holton.
Announcer : Gene Hamilton.

ANNOUNCER. The Countdown - X Minus Twelve.

VOICE (simulated intercom with rocket firing in background). * * * Four, three, two, one.

     ANNOUNCER. NBC News presents "Election Countdown," coast to coast, the fourth in a series of campaign progress reports from around the Nation as the 1960 presidential election day approaches. Our two anchor men in Radio Central are Merrill Mueller and Leon Pearson. Here is their roundup report, 12 days before E-Day.
     PEARSON. This is Leon Pearson. In previous editions of this program, we've made either a nationwide survey or a survey of the five States with the largest electoral votes. Tonight, "Election Countdown" will bring you spokesmen of tire two parties making their respective estimates; an analysis by a public opinion expert, Samuel Lubell, who'll give some indication of how he thinks New York, Ohio, and Illinois are going; and a conversation which Merrill Mueller and I will have with the two NBC correspondents who are traveling with the candidates. In short, though we are not adding up electoral votes tonight, we should get some indications of who has the edge and where. Now, here's Merrill Mueller.
     MUELLER. Well despite all the public opinion polls, the race really isn't over until the last ballot is officially counted. And American voters have a long tradition of splitting their votes from coast to coast. Thus, the most carefully weighed views of how the campaign is going - for there is much at stake nationally as well as in each of the 50 States - the most carefully weighed views of how the campaign is going are the assessments of the national headquarters of both parties in Washington. We have asked for their claims and, by a flip of the coin, start now with those of Roger Tubby, press manager of the Democratic Campaign Committee's base in the Nation's Capital.

     TUBBY. It still looks like a close contest in the seven States of New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, California Illinois, Texas, and New Jersey. We do, however, think that the Democratic chances are steadily improving in all of them. Intensive campaigning by Senator Kennedy and Senator Johnson, the growing concern with America's loss of prestige, and with our need to build our economic and military strength is, we think, responsible for the definite trend toward the Democratic ticket. The TV debates between Senator Kennedy and the Vice President, we think, gave the greatest boost to the Democratic cause. Senator Kennedy's character and intelligence and his leadership qualities came through so well on these programs. We are not claiming any States, nor are we conceding any. We are, naturally, pleased with the New York Daily News poll which has been remarkably accurate in forecasting previous elections in New York State. This poll shows Senator Kennedy today with a 54.3 percent to 45.7 percent for Mr. Nixon in that State. We are especially pleased to read in the New York News "straw poll" that Senator Kennedy is running so strongly in many upstate counties in New York, with a lead in some counties which have long been traditionally Republican. We believe the Democratic chances look good in New Jersey and that the Kennedy-Johnson ticket is making good progress in Pennsylvania, Ohio, California, Illinois, and Texas - all States where the race is especially close. Endorsement for Senator Kennedy today by the New York Times and the earlier endorsement of his candidacy by several other major newspapers around the country is bound, of course, to be of considerable help.

MUELLER. The GOP view and their claims now from Robert Finch, campaign manager for the national committee at the headquarters in Washington.

     FINCH. With 12 days to go in the campaign, this is the way we would look at the electoral votes in the pivotal States. We're leading comfortably. I think, in Illinois, in Texas, in Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Our tightest races are New York and New Jersey. When I say comfortably, I use the word loosely, because, in this type of race across the country, you can't take anything for granted. California, we feel very pleased about. There's a great native pride in the fact that a native-born Californian is running for the Presidency. We've had tremendous enthusiasm in our crowds in California. And Pat Brown is not doing too effective a job in running Kennedy's campaign in California. The major problem that we have in an election that has as close a popular vote as this is, of course, is the one of getting out the vote. In this, we have to rely on volunteers. Kennedy will have the support of the labor unions with a good deal of paid help and they will probably do a more effective job in this respect in some areas than will the volunteers. The problem is really the one of distortion in the electoral college. As your listeners know, this means that, no matter how many votes may be cast in the State, the one that gets the one vote more takes the entire bloc of electoral votes in the State. And this means that the one who gets the greatest popular vote in this election could, through the distortion of the electoral college, actually end up losing the election. This would be a very unfortunate business, because the leader of the free world, we hope, the next President of the United States, will lave a united people behind him. The final election result, I believe, will turn on how people respond in these last 2 weeks on the big issue. The strength of our economy, the growth of our economy on the one hand, which Dick Nixon believes comes out of unleashing the private sector and the individual within our economy, and the overriding issue of who is the best qualified to lead America, to lead the free world in the exciting and difficult years ahead. We think that's why Dick Nixon will be elected, but, may I make the appeal to all of your listeners across the country that, whatever their opinions, judge carefully and then vote, because this could be the most important vote an American will ever cast.

     PEARSON. Very interesting observations from Mr. Finch, particularly about the - to use his word - the "distortion" in the electoral college. We hope to have something further to say before this program is over about the electoral college. I was also interested, Mr. Mueller, in Mr. Finch's observations about Illinois. I made some notes here. Illinois, Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania as being pretty comfortably in the Republican column, as I gather he is saying. And he seems to be a little bit more firm than Mr. Tubby in his remarks.
     MUELLER. Yes. One thing I spotted, Leon, which struck my curiosity right away. Both of them are making claim to the State of California, and if the race is that close, we may have - we may not have the final count until early Wednesday morning after election night. We may leave a repetition of the old Hughes story.
     PEARSON. That was 3 days after, as I recall.
     MUELLER. That's right.
     PEARSON. Well, 3 weeks ago, NBC's Election Countdown heard from correspondents over the country that the vote of the suburbanite was going to be decisive in such cities as New York, Chicago, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia. But at that time there was no clear indication which way this vote was turning. Now, tonight, Samuel Lubell draws the same conclusion, that is to say that the suburbanites will be important, but he goes further. He has some findings as to how this suburban vote is going.

     LUBELL. To win the election, Richard Nixon must do two things: He has to crack the South; and he also has to carry most of the key industrial States like New York, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and California. In these States, the political battle usually is pictured in terms of a big Democratic city like Chicago, against the rest of the State which generally is described as Republican. But, actually, during the postwar years, a third unit of voting strength has arisen in all these industrial States - the suburbs that surround the big cities. And it is in these suburbs, whose populations have grown so tremendously in the last 10 years, that the battle for these States and, perhaps, the whole election, is likely to be settled. In New York State, for example, Nassau and Westchester Counties. These two counties alone provided 35 percent of the total plurality by which President Eisenhower won New York State in 1952. During this campaign, I have been systematically interviewing typical voters in the suburbs across the Nation - from New York to Los Angeles, around Cleveland, Chicago, Indianapolis, and other cities. What I have found brings into sharp focus the whole election battle. In all of this vast commuter country, one finds an astonishingly sharp division between Catholic and Protestant voters. The non-Catholic suburbanites are holding firm for Nixon. Among these non-Catholics who voted for Eisenhower, only 5 or 6 percent seem to be shifting to Kennedy. But among the Catholics who voted for Eisenhower, more than 35 percent - better than one out of every three are shifting to Kennedy. In the suburbs around New York City, this shift works out heavy enough so that Kennedy ought to carry the State. In the other industrial States, one can rate Kennedy's and Nixon's prospects largely by the proportion of Catholic voters in the suburbs. The higher the proportion, the higher are Kennedy's chances; the lower the proportion, the more favorable is the Nixon outlook.

     PEARSON. Mr. Lubell has pointed out previously that only once, this was in 1868, have the Republicans won the White House without New York's electoral votes. Well, this week, Time magazine publishes the result of a survey of New York State made by correspondent John Steele, who says:

Kennedy stands to carry New York State by a margin ranging from 250,000 to 500,000 votes.

Traditionally rich and two-thirds Republican, the commuter suburbs are changing. Voter registration has grown by a third since 1956 and its fruit hang - fruits hang mostly on the Democratic tree.

October has seen Jack Kennedy pull even, then ahead, in the race for the White House. Democratic politicians were sure of it, though they didn't want to sound too confident. A great many Republican politicians were privately willing to admit the same thing, though they, too, didn't propose to say it out loud.

One sure thing. Neither man underestimates the other.

     KAPLOW. Yes, Red, I have you.
     MUELLER. Frank Bourgholtzer has been with Senator Kennedy's party and now is back in our studios in Washington. Frank, you there?
     BOURGHOLTZER. Yes, here, Red.
     MUELLER. Well, Frank, let's start with you. What do you think Kennedy thinks of his chances now?
     BOURGHOLTZER. Well, Kennedy is saying in his speeches that he's confident he's going to win. But, of course, this means nothing, because all candidates say that right up to the last minute. The Kennedy people - the campaign advisers who travel with him - seem to me from the exposure I've had to them (and we keep changing our correspondents, as you know, Red, I've been there the last week with Kennedy), and his advisers seem to be trying very hard to be realistic and not overlook any unfavorable aspect. They seem to be trying very hard, in other words, not to be overconfident.
     MUELLER. Just as a sideline, Frank, before we ask Herb how Mr. Nixon's people feel at this point, is there any noticeable effort on the part of the Democratic group to fight complacency within the Democratic organization?
     BOURGHOLTZER. Well, that's pretty much the same thing that I meant. They are trying to keep the thing going and Kennedy makes - himself, makes speeches which include hues such as: "From now until election day we're not going to have any time off; it's going to be going full tilt right down to the wire because we can't afford to waste a minute." This kind of thing is certainly something they're trying to do.
     MUELLER. Umm humm. Certainly the polls are giving good reason for some complacency to creep into the Democratic campaign. Herb, how's Mr. Nixon feel tonight about his campaign?
     KAPLOW. * * * feels he certainly has an uphill fight, but certainly nobody in the Nixon camp will admit that their candidate is behind. They talk in terms of a well-paced campaign where you build slowly and you constantly ascend, finally to victory. They are hoping what Frank implied in his statement m terms of talking about overconfidence and preventing a letdown. The Nixon people are talking of and hoping that Senator Kennedy has reached a peak and can and will go no higher from here on. They hope he will slide and that they will ascend and the two lines will come and they'll end up on the high side.
     PEARSON. May I ask a question here? Herb, do you know of anything, looking back over the history of any campaign, that you can recall whether this happens? Does it often happen that the positions are reversed in the last 10 or 12 days?
     KAPLOW. Well, I think some people thought that in 1948, President Truman "pulled it out" in the last 2 weeks. I can't remember any farther back. I can conceive where a man would get so substantial a lead, 2 or 3 weeks ahead, that, even if it were to erode somewhat, it still would end up with 51 or more percent of the electoral votes. But I don't think anybody will say at this point that Senator Kennedy, if he has a lead, has that substantial a lead that it cannot be withered away.
     MUELLER. Any comment, Frank Bourgholtzer?
     BOURGHOLTZER. Well, I'm not going to claim to have covered elections before Herb Kaplow did. [Laughter.] I think the Truman campaign is a case of - of - of campaigning having made inroads in the final days and final weeks of the campaign. He never let up until the end, and there certainly were no signs that, even in hindsight, you can look back and pick out until those last few weeks. Of course, the Eisenhower victories were pretty much predictable from the beginning; and, as far as I can recall from the history books, I think the Roosevelt victories were pretty much in the same category.
     PEARSON. May I throw in something here. How about the health or demeanor or buoyancy or whatnot of the two men? Herb, how's your man Nixon? Is he doing well ?
     KAPLOW. Well, you picked quite a day to ask that question, because the Vice President had a very rough time with his voice all day today and last night. He picked up a cold, a touch of bronchitis; he's extremely hoarse, as hoarse as I've ever heard him. But he keeps going on. He's talking; he hasn't let up in the intensity or vigor of his carrying his campaign attacks to Senator Kennedy.
     PEARSON. Don't you have the feeling that that probably is an asset in a sense; that is to say, the public reaction to that sort of thing will be one of sympathy and of admiration that he does have the spirit to keep going.
     KAPLOW. Well, it's an asset as long as his voice holds up. If it let's out, can you imagine the campaign in the last 2 weeks without the candidate able to talk. [Laughter.]
     PEARSON. Frank, how about Senator Kennedy?
     BOURGHOLTZER. Well, from what I've seen of him, he seems to be in the mold of most candidates and that is that they seem several cuts above human. I don't think you apply the same standards to them. They must have a very low threshold of pain or be almost insensitive to it.
     MUELLER. You have both stressed, gentlemen, that we have entered the decisive phase of the campaign. Frank, suppose you spell out for us, and then I'll throw the same question at Herb, what you expect out of your candidate over the next few days or a couple of weeks.
     BOURGHOLTZER. Well, as you know, he's been in New York today, and the Kennedy people do feel quite confident in New York at this point. Ahead of him is quite a spell in Pennsylvania. He goes to Pennsylvania tomorrow and he'll be there through Monday. And, incidentally a good bit of that time will be spent in those suburbs you were taking about a while back, the suburbs in this case of Philadelphia. He's got a big problem in Pennsylvania and the Kennedy people know it, and they know that they've got to make some time in these last 2 weeks - or there's less than that now - these last few days. They've got to try and make some dent in Pennsylvania. They are encouraged by the fact that there seems to be a bigger Democratic registration this year in Pennsylvania than Republican and the question is how to turn that into Democratic votes in the ballot box when the time comes. After Pennsylvania, they're going out to the West Coast, to California, which is, probably, with Pennsylvania, the other big prize that may still be up for grabs in these last few days.
     MUELLER. Frank, I was almost going to cut you off. Herb, you have just enough time for equal time.
     KAPLOW. Well, okay. I think Senator Kenn - Vice President Nixon will be following roughly the same route for the same prizes as Senator Kennedy. What I look forward to is for Vice President Nixon to continue sharpening his attacks on Kennedy, and at the same time, sort of almost each night it appears now, perhaps dropping a "spectacular." Well, now, last night he mentioned the man he would like to see Vice President, Henry Cabot Lodge, being sent to Geneva, November 9, or the request to send him to Geneva, to try and get the nuclear test ban talks off dead center. That was sort of a - well, I guess you could call a Nixon "spectacular" in terms of the campaign suggestions, or a sensation. Tonight I see where Vice President Nixon talks about if being elected, he would like one of his objectives would be to visit each one of these Communist satellites nations. We're going to get a lot more of these things. He hopes one of them will catch the fancy and push him over, or if not one, then a combination of all of them going along with the attacks. Maybe a parlay into victory.

     PEARSON. Thank you very much, gentlemen. Well, that's good night on the circuits to Herb Kaplow and Frank Bourgholtzer. Of course, everything depends on electoral votes, or the electoral college. This system may seem obsolete, but it's provided for in the Constitution which says each State shall appoint a number of electors equal to the whole number of Senators and Representatives to which each State may be entitled in the Congress. Originally the electors were expected to elect the President; that is, to exercise their own judgment. But over the years, of course, they have become mere "dummies," automatically recording the votes cast for them. If they didn't, they might be in danger of their lives.
     From the point of view of the individual voter, there seems to be an injustice in the electoral system. All the electoral votes of a given State are cast for the candidate who gets a majority of the popular vote. This means that all the voters whose candidate does not win in a given State have, in effect, thrown their votes away. Suppose, for example, 8 million votes are cast in New York State. And 4,000,001 go for Nixon; the 3,999,999 that voted for Kennedy would not score at all. You might make a comparison with the recent world series. The Yankees scored an unprecedented 55 runs in seven games, as opposed to 27 scored by the Pirates. But the Pirates won four games and the Yankees won only three. The series, of course, went to the Pirates. Maybe this is what Mr. Finch, the Republican, meant a moment ago about the distortion of the electoral college. Well, that's electoral countdown with 12 days to go. This is Leon Pearson with Merrill Mueller, NBC News.
     ANNOUNCER. You have been listening to report No. 4 of "Election Countdown," coast to coast, a continuing progress report on the 1960 presidential election campaign. Next Thursday over most of these stations, we will present the final program in our series, "X Minus Five."

     VOICE (simulated intercom with rocket firing in background). Four, three, two, one.

     ANNOUNCER. This has been an NBC News Department presentation, James L. Holton, producer, Gene Hamilton speaking.