Mr. McGEE. Americans by the millions, the greatest number in history, have personally seen and heard the candidates for the Presidency. Additional millions, for the first time in history, have seen and heard them on television in face-to-face discussions of their views, and new millions of Americans have registered to vote this year. Where does the campaign stand now? [Music up.]

     ANNOUNCER. "The Campaign and the Candidates" presented by * * *¹
     Mr. McGEE. It's just past 9:30 here in New York, Saturday, October 22, 16 days to election day. Good evening, I'm Frank McGee, NBC News. Today the Republican candidate for President, Richard Nixon, was at Allentown, Pa., where he described his opponent's proposal, that the United States support those seeking to overthrow Cuba and Premier Fidel Castro, as the most shockingly, reckless proposal ever made in our history by a presidential candidate. Said Nixon, "This mistake should convince many Americans that they could not rest well at night with a man with such a total lack of judgment as Commander in Chief of our Armed Forces." Today the Democratic candidate for President, Senator John Kennedy, was in St. Louis, Mo., where he again challenged his opponent to meet him in an extra nationwide television debate. Kennedy urged Nixon to stand up face to face with me, as they say he stood up to Mr. Khrushchev. aid Mr. Kennedy, "I'm ready to go to any part of the United States and to take an hour to give the people a chance to see the candidates face to face. The issues in this campaign," he continued, "must not be hidden in shadows and clouds. They must be brought into sharp and clear focus, so that the American people can make an intelligent choice." Thus the candidates are continuing to use their television debates as the main element in their campaigns, enlarging in their local appearances the points and arguments developed in the debates. It has not yet been determined if there will be a fifth debate, but here is a highlight from their fourth and perhaps final joint appearance last night. The question was, America's standing in the eyes of the world.
    Vice President NIXON. What about American prestige abroad? America's prestige abroad will be just as high as the spokesmen for America allow it to be. Now, when we have a presidential candidate, for example, Senator Kennedy, stating over and over again that the United States is second in space and the fact of the matter is that the space score today is 28 to 8; we've had 28 successful shots, they've had 8. When he states that we're second in education - and I've seen Soviet education and I've seen ours and we're not - that we're second in science because they may be ahead in one area or another - when overall we're way ahead of the Soviet Union and all other countries in science. When he says as he did in January of this year, that we have the worst slums, that we have the most crowded schools, when he says that 17 million people go to bed hungry every night, when he makes statements like this, what does this do to American prestige? Well, it can only have the effect, certainly of reducing it.
     Senator KENNEDY. What I downgrade, Mr. Nixon, is the leadership the country's getting, not the country. Now, I didn't make most of the statements that you said I made. I believe the Soviet Union is first in outer space. We may have made more shots but the size of their rocket thrust is greater and all the rest. You, yourself, said, "you may be ahead of us in rocket thrust but we're ahead of you in color television." in your famous discussion in the kitchen. I think that color television is not as important as rocket thrusts. Secondly, I didn't say we had the worst slums in the world. I said we had too many slums and that they are bad, and we ought to do something about them and we ought to support housing legislation which this administration has opposed. I didn't say we had the worst education in the world. What I said was that 10 years ago we were producing twice as many scientists and engineers as the Soviet Union and today they're producing twice as many as we are and this affects our security around the world. And fourth, I believe that the polls and other studies and votes in the United Nations, and then reading the papers and any citizen of the United States must come to the conclusion that the United States no longer carries the same image of a vital society on the move with its brightest days ahead, as it carried a decade or two decades ago. Part of that is because we stood still here, at home - because we haven't met our problems.
     Mr. McGEE. Now there has never been greater interest in a political phenomenon than [interruption]. You're about to see and hear a few of the nearly 400 voters across the country that our reporters talked to, in an effort to learn how the television debates have influenced them. Now, the sampling was taken the day after the third debate and this was not a poll in the sense of trying to learn which candidate is ahead. Still, it is virtually impossible for the average person to speak of the debates without mentioning the candidate he prefers. So we've tried to balance these, so that the candidates come out even, since the important point in this study is whether the debates had helped the people to make up their minds. And we turn first to Lowell, Mass.
     MAN. The debates had no influence on my vote. I've already made up my mind to vote for Jack Kennedy but I find them most engrossing. And I say that I'm voting for Kennedy, even though I work for the Hearst papers. And the bosses of the paper, they all have come out for the Nixon-Lodge ticket, so maybe I'm committing a kind of suicide. But I'm for Kennedy and the debates have no bearing on my decision.
     MAN. I think that the debates have a great deal of value to me because they point up the real differences between the philosophy of government on the part of both parties and both candidates. I believe that the philosophy expounded by the Vice President, Mr. Nixon, truly reflects my own views because I believe in that philosophy of government.
     MAN. Well, the debates actually have not influenced my decision whatsoever. They have pointed out, to me, and I think to many people, that we have two terrific, dynamic candidates. They're both wonderful men. I think the debates have served to create a tremendous amount of interest and enthusiasm and will really get out the vote on November 8.
     REPORTER. How are the debates influencing you?
     MAN. Well, as of this moment, the first two debates I felt were sort of warmup, match-type debates. I found that I learned a little bit more about each of the candidates than I was able to learn by reading newspapers and occasional speeches.
     REPORTER. And the third?
     MAN. The third debate, which was the debate which centered a great deal around the so-called issue of the two offshore islands, was the one that first made a crack in balance of interests as far as I was concerned. I finally felt that the so-called old Nixon - the Nixon of forty-eight and fifty-two - was not dead and not matured and had not changed, but was just lying dormant under the surface, awaiting a chance to come out again.
     REPORTER. I take it then that you're for Kennedy?
     MAN. Well, unless something dramatic happens within the next 4 weeks. As of now, I feel that Kennedy is the superior of the two, as was demonstrated by Nixon last night.
    REPORTER. How about you? Do you agree with that?
     WOMAN. No, I don't because I think Mr. Nixon has shown a great deal of maturity. I don't think the debates make too much difference because I think people have had a chance, over the years, to know what Mr. Nixon can do. And I think that people have already made up their minds. I don't think the debates make that much difference.
     REPORTER. Has it influenced you at all? - the series of debates?
     WOMAN. No, I still feel the way I did before. I stand on the experience of Mr. Nixon.
     REPORTER. How about you? What about this experience?
     MAN. He hasn't shown me enough on the basis of experience to justify voting for him as opposed to Kennedy. I think that the maturity issue which Nixon originally raised last night turned against him. I think I'd rather have maturity than so-called experience.
     WOMAN. Well, that goes with experience - maturity. Isn't it wonderful that we're here and there's no war going on and you're able to talk to me and you're not in a soldier's uniform? I think that makes a lot of difference.
     MAN. When we start talking about something on the basis of pure emotion, I don't think this lady and I can ever agree.
     WOMAN. No.
     MAN. I just feel that between the two gentlemen, Kennedy is the better man as of now. He's shown to be the better man.
     REPORTER. Give the lady the last word?
     WOMAN. Yes, "never the twain shall meet."
     [Cut to Chicago.]
     MAN. Well, quite frankly I don't think they are debates. I never have and I never will because there has been no time, really, for a real rebuttal from either side. However, the show, as I would call it, has definitely influenced me. It swayed me back and forth. Prior to watching both candidates on TV, I was for one and then the other. Now, I haven't made up my mind definitely, but they are definitely swaying me.
     WOMAN. Well, they've solidified my opinion, let's put it that way. I pretty well made up my mind beforehand and I thought Mr. Nixon carried himself very well in the debate last night.
     MAN. Being the first election I'm allowed to vote in, I'm taking a great interest in these presidential debates. They are beneficial to a certain degree. I feel, however, that they point out the sweeping generalities that are used by political men all throughout the country in their speechmaking. I fortunately will vote for Kennedy, I believe, because he presents more facts than does Mr. Nixon. Mr. Nixon uses sweeping generalities and says absolutely nothing, except mother country and apple pie which the people love to hear.
    [Cut to Dallas, Tex.]
     MAN. As far as the debates are concerned, well, of course, I've listened to them but I don't think it's influenced me too much, just maybe more strong for the one I'm planning on voting for.
     WOMAN. Well, I think they have influenced my decision as we'll as everybody else's decision. Sometimes they produce almost a state of indecision and every debate, I vacillate between one candidate and the other.
     MAN. I ain't going to vote.
     REPORTER. You're not going to vote?
     MAN. I never voted but once in my life.
     REPORTER. How many years is that, sir?
     MAN. How many years has that been?
     REPORTER. Yes, sir.
     MAN. Let's see - for 45 - been 80 years ago.
     REPORTER. Eighty years the first time that you voted or the last time?
     MAN. The last time.
     REPORTER. How old are you now?
     MAN. I was 105 the 14th of February.
     [Cut to Los Angeles.]
     WOMAN. Well, I can't really tell because I haven't been watching them all. I've only seen one and its made me more undecided.
     WOMAN. They're going to have all the influence in the world how I vote. I listen to every one of them and so far I think Mr. Kennedy is ahead.
     WOMAN. Well, I don't think it's going to have any influence at all. I already made up my mind long before the candidates were even running. Because I felt that Nixon was the better man, better qualified with the experience, a little bit older than Kennedy, although I don't have anything against Mr. Kennedy.
     MAN. Well, these debates - it's an excellent idea but up 'til now I don't know which is more phonier, the wrestling which I've been watching or the debates I've been watching.
     [Cut to Detroit.]
     MAN. The Nixon-Kennedy debates have been very interesting to me for this reason. I can see a whole plan carried on in the debates by Kennedy's attempt to undermine and get small incidental things that he can harp on against Nixon. I consider Nixon sincere.
     REPORTER. Now, here's one final opinion from a man on the street. How have the debates influenced you, sir?
     Mr. ROBERT KENNEDY. Well, I was a strong supporter of Senator Kennedy originally but I feel much stronger now and I think that, really, it's absolutely essential and necessary that he be elected the next President of the United States. He really has made a difference in my opinion and I'm trying to influence all my friends in his direction.
     Mr. McGEE. The testimony of that last voter must be stricken from the record. I don't think he can really speak without bias because that was Robert Kennedy, the manager of his brother John's presidential campaign. Our crew ran across him when he was in Denver. Well, the vice presidential candidates have had special assignments in the campaign. Each of them has labored early and late trying to get his particular message across. NBC News has had correspondence with each of them, watching them and the crowds they draw and checking to see how well they may be succeeding, and their reports are coming up.
     [Music up - commercial.]
     Mr. McGEE. Now, the special assignment given to Senator Lyndon Johnson, the Democratic vice presidential candidate, has been to try to keep the traditionally Democratic South true to its voting tradition.  For a report on his campaign, we switch to Washington and NBC's Robert Abernethy.
     Mr. ABERNETHY. Far from being the forgotten man of this campaign, Lyndon Johnson may become long remembered. He's an effective complement to Senator Kennedy with strength in the areas and arguments where Kennedy needs help the most. By agreeing to run with Kennedy, Johnson muffled some of the cries of conservative Democrats against the liberal platform. By missionary work with leaders of the South, Johnson has probably prevented many of the voters of Dixie from going fishing or Republican on November 8. Johnson can be folksy and funny. No one can accuse him of being inexperienced. And Johnson, the Texas Protestant, can and does bring people to their feet, cheering with his fervent attacks on religious intolerance. More and more, in the last few days, Johnson has been describing the dangers of what he calls divided government. Johnson says there will be a Democratic majority in the Senate, no matter how the election goes and he charges that Mr. Nixon, as President, could never lead a Democratic Congress. Because too many Democrats are too bitter about Mr. Nixon's attacks on them and their party. Johnson's advisers fear paralysis. Woodrow Wilson's 7 willful men, they say, will be multiplied 10 times but Johnson predicts a Democratic landslide and he suggests there'll be more action in a Kennedy administration than at any time since the first 100 days of the New Deal. We'll pass the laws, Johnson promises, and he'll sign them. Bob Abernethy, NBC News, covering the Johnson campaign.
     Mr. McGEE. Now, the Republican vice presidential candidate, Henry Cabot Lodge, has campaigned almost exclusively on foreign policy issues. When he touches on domestic problems, he relates them to foreign affairs. Lodge is in Chicago tonight. For a report on his campaign, we switch to Chicago and NBC's Bill Ryan.
     Mr. RYAN. Probably the test indication of how the Lodge campaign is going, came last Wednesday night, when we got to Minneapolis. A Minnesota Republican, who met him at the airport said this to Ambassador Lodge - he said, "You know, we were all isolationists out here and now you are the hottest thing on the ticket, but don't worry, we've repositioned ourselves." Well, that's something that local Republicans have been learning all across the country. There's tremendous public interest in this man. In some places, he's drawn relatively small crowds, about the size you'd expect from a vice presidential candidate. But Lodge is proud that police in nine cities have told him he outdrew Senator Kennedy in those places. He's always introduced as the man from the United Nations. He makes heavy references to his U.N. experiences in every speech and he draws excellent crowd reaction. He was a little leery when he first started on this campaign. He was more or less out of politics for the 7½ years he spent at the U.N. but they have turned into his major political asset and they're being used to the hilt. Now, Republican strategy is to use his appeal in Democratic strongholds. He campaigns tomorrow in Chicago with Illinois Gov. William Stratton, whose bid for a third term is in trouble - then Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, all big States in the electoral vote sweepstakes. Lodge will be based in New York City in the final week of the campaign, with a schedule as fluid as possible. There'll be little change in his basic campaign technique, unless a sudden development dictates a change. And if that should happen, he'll be ready. He feels this is still anybody's election. He's confident but he's not claiming a thing. Bill Ryan, NBC News with the Lodge campaign.
     Mr. McGEE. Now, in the heat of a presidential campaign, it is sometimes overlooked that the 1960 political battleground is also marked with skirmishes on the congressional front. The Democrats now control both Houses of Congress and will under any circumstances retain control of the Senate. But the House, as it always is, is completely on the line. Right now the Democrats have solid control of the House of Representatives. There are 280 Democrats, 151 Republicans, and 6 vacancies - 3 in Democratic seats, 3 in Republican. Thus, in the mathematics of politics, the Republicans need to pick up 65 additional seats to regain control. The Republican Party has, therefore, named 65 priority targets - congressional districts that are normally Republican but which went to the Democrats in the 1958 landslide, the off-year election year. Six States are paramount in this Republican drive, 6 States involving a total of 30 House seats.
     One of these States is Connecticut where all 6 seats are primary targets of the GOP. In this onetime Republican stronghold, the Republicans lost everything in 1958, when popular Abraham Ribicoff, a Democrat, carried the entire ticket with him as he swept into the Governor's mansion. In three of the six races, the republicans have nominated men who held the House seats under the GOP banner prior to the Ribicoff political hurricane.
     In Pennsylvania, the Republicans have selected five Democratic seats for primary targets. One is in the district once held by former Republican national chairman and now Senator Hugh Scott. Another is in President Eisenhower's own Gettysburg voting district.
     In Ohio, the Republicans have set their sights on four seats, three of which the Democrats had upset in the 1958 political upheaval. All four of the candidates in special contention are normally Republicans, with the Democrats winning only by the slimmest of margins.
     In Illinois, that peculiar political entity, which is strongly Democratic in Chicago and strongly Republican downstate, the GOP is after six additional seats. It will be interesting to watch the 25th district, a depressed coal area in southern Illinois. If it goes Republican, it will be a bellwether for other GOP congressional gains.
     Now, it was in Indiana that the Republicans suffered their most demoralizing defeat in 1958. In this once solid Republican State, the Democrats won six congressional seats 2 years ago. The Republicans have made five of those seats prime target areas this time. Two interesting sidebars here: In the ninth district, former Sheriff Earl Hogan won by only four-tenths of 1 percent and the ninth is a so-called Bible belt area and may be a good indicator of whether religion is really on issue in this campaign; in Indiana's 10th district, the Democratic incumbent is Randall Harmon who gained so much front page notoriety when he charged the Government for office space, which in reality was his own front porch.
     In California, the priority targets for the Republicans are four congressional districts they lost in 1958, and one of them, incidentally, is Vice President Nixon's old House seat. All the Democratic victories, 2 years ago, were by the narrowest of margins. And this year in three of the four key races the Republicans are putting up new talent, men who have never sought a congressional seat before.
     There are 35 other key contests, three each, for example, in Iowa, Kansas, and Wisconsin. The Republicans say they are determined that 1960 will not be a replay of 1958, and they are giving 65 reasons, they say, for their determination tonight. On the Senate side of the Congress, the situation is not so fluid and that report is coming up.
     [Commercial message.]
     Mr. McGEE. We just said the Republicans must gain 65 seats to win control of the House. Now, that's a sizable task. In the Senate, there are 34 seats at stake this year. Can Republicans win control of that Chamber? The answer from NBC's Robert McCormick.
     Mr. McCORMICK. Well, as a practical matter, it's utterly impossible for the Republicans to get control of the Senate. Mathematically, they have a chance. But they would have to win places that Republicans are known only as conversation pieces. The present Senate has 66 Democrats and 34 Republicans. Forty-two Democrats and twenty-four Republicans aren't up for reelection this time around - 34 seats are at stake. The Republicans would have to win all but six of those, now held by the Democrats, in order to get a one-vote control of the Senate - and they simply can't do it. Many Democrats don't even have token opposition - and in 17 races the incumbents are figured to win - and in only 2 of these are the incumbents Republicans. The other 17 races however are perhaps more interesting - not necessarily because they may be tighter or more decisive, but because they have some sort of political zing. In Colorado, a Republican Senator, Gordon Allott, will probably be reelected, since the State usually elects Republican Senators - but Democrat John Carroll broke through in 1956, and Allott's opponent, Robert Knous, might do it again. He has been Lieutenant Governor, his father was Governor. Delaware recently has made a habit of having one Republican and one Democratic Senator. The Democrat, at the moment, J. Allen Frear, Jr., is trying for his third full term - but his opponent is a toughie - J. Caleb Boggs, now Governor, and a former Member of Congress. Idaho is one of the States that jumps back and forth in its Senate choices. Republican Henry Dworshak, a former newspaperman, is trying for his second full term - his opponent, Robert McLaughlin is 40 years old - has been a prosecuting attorney but has never before tried for a major political lob. Yet, he's giving Dworshak quite a fight. The Democrats recently have made something of a comeback in Iowa - but they have not been able to take a Senate seat. Their chance this year came when the incumbent Thomas Martin retired. Jack Miller, a former State legislator, will make the pitch for the Republicans against former Governor Herschel Loveless - and as they say at the track, Loveless will be tough to beat. A Republican, Andrew Schoeppel, is after his third term in the Senate from Kansas, and generally seems to be on the long end of the odds. But his Democratic opponent, Theis, a national committeeman, has popped some conflict of interest charges that might swing things around. One of the Republican's prize show pieces in the Senate, John Sherman Cooper, is in a harsh political fight. Cooper has run for the Senate five times, from Kentucky, in the last 15 years. He has won 3 times, but always to fill out the unexpired term of another Senator. And this will be his third attempt to get a full term all to himself. But he is opposed by Keen Johnson, a former Governor of Kentucky, and a very good votegetter indeed. Another Republican prize also is in quite a fight. Senator Margaret Chase Smith of Maine has been in Congress for 20 years - in the Senate for 12. She holds committee assignments, important to her State, but she has made enemies, as she went along. As a result, she's getting quite a battle from Miss Lucia Cormier, who served six terms in the Maine House of Representatives, and was the first woman ever elected floor leader. Her campaign has been vigorous and vocal - but unless there should be a national sweep by the Democrats, Mrs. Smith probably will win. Senator Kennedy's home State of Massachusetts is expected to reelect its Republican Senator, Leverett Saltonstall. Saltonstall is opposed by Thomas J. O'Connor, a 35-year-old bachelor, and a mayor of Springfield, and a veteran of 3 years in the Massachusetts Legislature. Democratic Senator Pat McNamara of Michigan is a labor advocate, a member of the Plumber's Union himself - very proud of it - has recently concentrated on problems of the aged, which should make him a natural for his home State of Michigan - but he is opposed by Republican Representative Alvin Bentley, who got considerable prominence for his zealous fight against communism. Both men are opposed by a variety of minor party candidates, including Rollin Severance of the Prohibition Party, Alvin Reynolds of the Independent Party, Frank Lovell of the Socialist Workers, and James Sim of the Socialist Labor Party. Well, the death this year of Senator Tom Hennings opened things up in Missouri.
     The Democrats have put up Edward Long, who was not incidentally the choice of former President Truman. Long was appointed to fill Hennings' post, pending an election. He is opposed by Lon Hocker, a St. Louis lawyer, who tried for the governorship in 1956 but didn't make it. Another vacancy was created in Montana when Senator James Murray retired. The Democrats have, after a somewhat unpleasant and intraparty row, selected Representative Lee Metcalf for the job. Metcalf has been a leader of the Democratic liberals in the House. He is opposed by Orvin Fjare, a businessman and a member of the State legislature. Easygoing Clifford Case, classified as a Republican liberal, is expected to be reelected in New Jersey. His opponent is Thorn Lord who has been credited with turning powerful Mercer County from Republican to Democratic. But Lord has been handicapped by a split within his own party. And New Jersey also, by the way, has a handful of minor party candidates, including Albert Ronis of the Socialist Labor Party, Winfred Perry of the Conservative Party, John D'Addeta, an Independent, and Gladys Grauer of the Socialist Workers Party. Well, Oregon's Senate election is one of the most interesting of all - both from a political standpoint and from the standpoint of human interest. The Democrats are running Maurine Neuberger, the widow of the Senator who died of cancer. Mrs. Neuberger is an experienced politician in her own right. She served three terms in the State house of representatives. Both Mrs. Neuberger and her late husband were journalists of some note - and so is Mrs. Neuberger's opponent in this election, Elmo Smith. And Smith, by the way, also was president of the Oregon State Senate. And still another vacancy created by the retirement of 93-year-old Theodore Francis Green of Rhode Island - and Rhode Island, of course, is normally Democratic. Claiborne Pell won the Democratic nomination in a genuine upset. He's a former Foreign Service officer; is a complete newcomer to politics. His Republican opponent is Raoul Archambault, Jr., who has been in politics since the end of World War II and was once Republican State chairman. And in South Dakota, Republican Senator Karl Mundt is having one of the roughest fights in his almost 25 years of active politics. Mundt is running for a third term. He is opposed by a Democrat, George S. McGovern, a Member of the House for 3 years, and the sparkplug of the renaissance of the Democratic Party in South Dakota. The Democrats in West Virginia are counting on the State's economic depression and a quarter of a million advantage in registrations to reelect Senator Jennings Randolph. He is opposed by Cecil Underwood, the Governor, who has been kept so busy defending his record as Governor that he has not been able to devote himself at all to national policies. And finally there is Wyoming - the veteran Senator Joseph O'Mahoney is retiring because of bad health. The Democrats have put up Raymond B. Whitaker, a former Democratic State chairman. Whitaker ran for the House 2 years ago and was defeated by the man now running against him for the Senate, Keith Thomson. Thomson has been in the House for 5 years and was a lawyer before that. And that just about wraps up the Senate.
     Mr. McGEE. So Republicans are given no realistic chance of winning the Senate, and only an outside chance of winning the House. Returning to the presidential campaign - have the two candidates developed any decisive issue between them? Well, here is the opinion in the view of a public opinion analyst, Samuel Lubell.
     Mr. LUBELL. Actually, no issue has really been decisive. Through this whole campaign, both Kennedy and Nixon have been searching for something that would give them a real breakthrough with the voters - but so far neither man seems to have found it. For Nixon, his main votegetter has been the world crisis. The feeling, as one man in Chicago put it - he's been in there, and Ike has taught him a lot about how to stay out of war. The dispute over the offshore China islands, Quemoy and Matsu, has strengthened Nixon. But still this whole peace issue lacks that landslide surge that it had for President Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956. Too many voters are like a Los Angeles housewife that I talked with. She remarked, "Eisenhower has kept the peace, but where is it?" The peace issue does gain ground for Nixon, but it does not give him the touchdown that he needs. With Kennedy, his best vote-getting issue had been the reassertion of Democratic Party loyalty, and economic discontent. They have helped Kennedy pick up some of the Eisenhower vote in all but a few of the precincts that I have sampled across the country, but they have not registered with sweeping force. Voters who are troubled about economic conditions still ask where the tax is coming from to pay for what Kennedy proposes to do. There is one other reason why no one big issue has been able to break through and that is the religious question. Now, it's unpleasant to talk about religion in politics. But Kennedy's being a Catholic is causing more shifting of voters than any other factor. It also limits the gains that can be made with other issues. On one side Kennedy is held in by the Protestant Democrats who are breaking against him - on the other side Nixon can push only so far, and then he runs up against a very heavy shifting among Catholic Republicans to Kennedy. On election day the deciding factor, I suspect, will not be the issues but how people feel about the personalities of the two candidates.
     Mr. McGEE. Well, the presidential campaign has now reached the point where politicians and the press feel at least reasonably safe in appraising the outcome. We have such appraisals from each man's campaign manager and from our own correspondents - and their reports are coming up.
     [Commercial message.]
     Mr. McGEE. You're about to hear directly from the two men who have handled the candidates' campaign. Naturally, both Robert Kennedy, brother and campaign manager to Senator John Kennedy, and Robert Finch, campaign director for Vice President Nixon, think their candidate will win. But why do they think this? We hear first from Robert Kennedy, and then Robert Finch.
     Mr. ROBERT KENNEDY. I believe there's a real trend on now for Senator Kennedy in the Democratic Party. We are extremely encouraged. I think, back in the early part of September, it was most difficult - it was just when Senator Kennedy was just beginning his campaigning. He was well known in the States where he had had primaries but was not well known in some sections of the country. They had seen his picture but hadn't seen him or heard his views on various issues. And he went out and campaigned - and they saw him personally, across the country. And I think it's made a major difference. I think the television debates have helped tremendously. I think it pulled the rug out from underneath Mr. Nixon - the Republican's argument that Senator Kennedy was immature - a kid that couldn't stand up. He could stand up - and more than hold his own - and I think that received great support. So I think there is a definite trend in our direction. I think, in the State of New York, where in the city of New York, over a period of 6 days, we registered more than a million people - 1,057,000 - I think that we'll carry the city of New York by more than 800,000. We'll carry the city of Philadelphia by, I hope and expect, 250,000. I think we're doing well in Illinois. I think the situation in Michigan is extremely encouraging as it is in Ohio. I think we have a chance in Iowa and in some of the other farm States. I just returned from California where the registration amounted to more than 1,100,000 over the registration period. I think it's extremely promising there. So, right across the country, I think there's a trend in the Democratic direction, and I think that Senator Kennedy will do extremely well on November 8. I don't think we can take any States for granted. I think if we fight hard - fight over the period of the next 2½ weeks - that we're going to win.
     Mr. FINCH. We enter the critical final 3 weeks in, I think, a little different kind of situation. It's a very tight race at this point. I would give us a slight edge. But there's n large bloc of undecided. It ranges between 15 and 20 percent. This means that you have to assume, across the board, a tight popular vote - and then you have to look at each State individually to decide how the electoral vote is going. Because it's the vote in the electoral college that's decisive here. This means that you look at so many votes for California - the big States - New York, Pennsylvania, Michigan. And the battle ground in the final weeks will probably be there. Overall, I would say we're doing well in the Midwest - we're doing very well indeed in California, the Far West. We're not going to get the deep Southern States. We'll snake a good showing in the border States. I think we'll carry Texas. And Kennedy's area of greatest strength, of course, is his home area - and he will run well in the general New England area. This might just be one of those strange situations where - and I hope it isn't true - the winner of the popular vote will not be the winner of the electoral vote. I think the key issues that the Vice President will hit in these last few weeks - first, the overriding issues of who is best qualified to lead the free world into the exciting and challenging decade ahead. And, secondly, how do we accomplish it? How do we keep strong? What's the best way to keep our economy stable? Protect our dollar? And unleash - which the Vice President believes - is to unleash the private sector of the economy? They're coupled together. And I think you'll see him expose his views at great length on the matter of domestic economy, and on the question of free world leadership, in these final few weeks.
     Mr. McGEE. Now, there you have the prediction of the campaign managers. But now let's have a State-by-State appraisal from the NBC correspondents who have spent months on the campaign trail with the candidates. Their reports, of course, will reflect their own firsthand observation, but also the private claims of experienced politicians, and samplings of voter sentiment across the country by our own reporters. Now remember, there are 537 electoral votes. To win, a candidate must capture 269 of these. Here are Sander Vanocur and Herbert Kaplow. Sander.
     Mr. VANOCUR. The opener is comparatively easy. There are a few arguments to the State that Kennedy has the edge in - Alabama.
     Mr. KAPLOW. There's no argument either about who is leading in Alaska. Both sides agree it's Kennedy. Alaska incidentally is the one State Vice President Nixon may not get to. But he is trying to squeeze it in to fulfill his pledge to visit all 50 States during the campaign.
     Mr. VANOCUR. In the race for Arizona's four votes, the Nixon strategists say their man is ahead. Kennedy's people concede this but insist that Kennedy is moving up.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Kennedy is leading in Arkansas. Nevertheless, Republicans go through the motion of fighting for the State, bulwarked by what they consider an attractive gubernatorial candidate.
     Mr. VANOCUR. California's 32 votes. Some polls have shown Nixon ahead in his home State. But his main problem is statistics - registered Democrats outnumber registered Republicans by 1,400,000. The voters here, however, are fickle. Democratic majorities in the past have not caused California to go Democrat in either statewide or presidential elections - with the exception of 1958 when Pat Brown won the Governor's race by a million votes. But Nixon's problem - and it's a big one - is how to attract all those independent and Democratic votes. The Nixon forces speak confidently about California. Kennedy's men rate it a tossup at this time, but believe things are picking up.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Colorado is a tossup. The State has a political history of going both Democratic and Republican. F.D.R. in 1932 and 1936, then Willkie, Dewey, Truman, Eisenhower, and Eisenhower again in 1956.
     Mr. VANOCUR. A few weeks ago Connecticut was just about written off by the Republicans but now they feel new confidence, though they admit Kennedy is still ahead. Kennedy's campaign staff has ordered an intensive stretch drive and they say the State is safe for Kennedy.
     Mr. KAPLOW. A State with a relatively strong conservative and Republican tradition is Delaware. It's believed leaning toward Nixon.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Nixon's aids say the Vice President is in good shape in Florida. The Kennedy camp admits that Nixon is ahead but again they say their reports claim Kennedy is picking up strength.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Georgia Republicans, after so many years in the political vineyards, now see a two-party South more clearly in the future. They're working but few observers feel Georgia is ready, yet, to desert its traditional Democratic voting pattern. Georgia definitely for Kennedy.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Hawaii, the Nation's newest State, is seen safe in the Republican column. Kennedy's aids admit the State is leaning to Nixon.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Idaho is leaning to Nixon. This is one of the States where religious feeling could work against Kennedy.
     Mr. VANOCUR. In Illinois, Nixon appears to have an edge at the moment. The Democrats say Illinois is a tossup. They're counting on a big turnout in Democratic Chicago to offset normal downstate Republican votes. They also expect to pick up votes in certain pockets downstate which have depressed economic areas. Though the religious question may possibly hurt Kennedy there. The Nixon forces are also concerned about the effect of weak Republican candidates for Governor and U.S. Senator on Nixon's chances. Several important Republican newspapers in Illinois have endorsed their Democratic opponents. A strong Democratic State ticket may help Kennedy in Illinois. As a strong Democratic State particularly helped Truman within the State in 1948.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Indiana is one of the States where the Nixon forces feel most secure. It has a Republican tradition. And in Indiana, too, the religious issue may work against Kennedy. It should be noted, however, there are several Democratic strongholds in the State. As a matter of fact, eight Democratic Congressmen to three Republicans.
     Mr. VANOCUR. The religious issue will probably hurt Kennedy's chances in Iowa despite farmers discontent over Ezra Taft Benson. Iowa now must be rated as leaning to Nixon.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Even though Democratic strength has been growing in Kansas, the State, as now seen, is going for Nixon. This is one of the States Democrats were hoping, some months back, would participate in a farm revolt. Farmers are dissatisfied but Nixon is optimistic that he's detached himself from any of the blame for farm policies with which the farmers are unhappy.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Kentucky went Republican in 1956 and the national ticket is expected to be helped this year by John Sherman Cooper, running for reelection to the Senate. Both sides, however, rate it as a tossup at this time.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Louisiana went for Eisenhower in 1956 but is expected to return to its Democratic niche this November. It's got a large Catholic population but Republicans concede the Democratic tradition alone is enough to send the State voting for Kennedy.
     Mr. VANOCUR. As Maine goes so goes Maine. The Republicans are aided by Senator Margaret Chase Smith making a bid for another turn. The Democrats have steadily been picking up strength in Maine over the past few years and their national ticket will probably be aided by Congressman Frank Coffin, who is making a strong race for the governorship. It looks like Nixon has the edge here.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Like so many States, Maryland finds the Democrats relying heavily on a big city vote. In this case, Baltimore, to counteract an overwhelming Republican strength elsewhere. At the moment Maryland is very close.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Massachusetts is Kennedy's home State. If he can't win here, he can't win anywhere.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Republicans concede Kennedy has the edge in Michigan but it is one of the larger States - the Democrats have had internal troubles - the Republicans have improved their organization - and so the GOP is making a real play for Michigan's 20 electoral votes. Working for the Democrats, however, is organized labor which is strong in Michigan. So at the moment, Kennedy is slightly ahead in Michigan.
     Mr. VANOCUR. A strengthened Republican organization in Minnesota is helping Nixon's chances and his aids feel pleased with the way things are going., Kennedy is being helped here by Senator Hubert Humphrey, running for his third term. Humphrey is very popular with labor and the farmers and should help Kennedy. This is a close State with Kennedy having the edge and Nixon's forces claiming their man is making headway.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Mississippi's presidential voting is complicated by a States rights group at work. Republicans hope, but don't really expect, that this will keep the State from going for Kennedy.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Stevenson carried Missouri in 1956 and the Democrats have traditionally been strong in this border State. Kennedy should be in good shape in the populous areas like St. Louis and Kansas City but his religion may cause him trouble in the southern parts of the State. The edge here is to Kennedy.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Montana, which leas voted right on Presidents since 1904, is close at the moment with Kennedy ahead by perhaps a hair.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Nixon forces claim Nebraska as a sure thing. The Kennedy men concede that the State is leaning to the Vice President.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Both sides claim their candidates lead in Nevada but both also concede it is close. So Nevada is a tossup.
     Mr. VANOCUR. The Republicans claim New Hampshire is safe for Nixon. But there is some concern about feuding between rival Republican factions. Democrats say Kennedy may do better than expected. He ran well in the primary there last March. The edge, however is Nixon's.
     Mr. KAPLOW. One of the first States to show a preference was New Jersey, sounding off for Kennedy. It has a lot of Catholics. It has a strong, union flavoring, all working in favor of the Senator. But while they realize that they're trailing in this 16-vote State, the Republicans refuse to concede it. They have a strong senatorial candidate in incumbent Clifford Case and the State went overwhelmingly for Eisenhower in 1952 and 1956.
     Mr. VANOCUR. New Mexico is another one of those States up for grabs. It could go either way.
     Mr. KAPLOW. The biggest prize of all, New York's 45 electoral votes, are naturally the focal point for most of the efforts being exerted by both parties. Nixon strategists say the battle could not be tighter and they've got a tremendous amount of work to do. Kennedy strategists think they're doing well but not well enough to ease up anywhere in their New York operations. Kennedy is expected to capture the New York City area where there are lots of Catholics and Jews, who are expected to support Kennedy in large numbers. Kennedy also has been showing up well in certain upstate areas where Republicans traditionally had strength. But the Nixon people say there are still a lot of undecided votes, enough to swing the election. In summary, Kennedy seems to be doing well in New York State, but neither side can afford to relax its efforts until November ninth.
     Mr. VANOCUR. North Carolina is a State in political transition, almost, a political border State. Both sides consider it will be close. Kennedy's religion may hurt him here but Republican agricultural policies do not appear to be helping Nixon. Both men campaigned in the State, both lead good crowds and it's a tossup.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Republicans may have lost a special senatorial election in North Dakota this summer, but it certainly doesn't seem to have foreshadowed much trouble for Vice President Nixon in the fall. At the moment, Nixon is in good shape in North Dakota, again farm dissatisfaction but not with Nixon.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Republican nominee Nixon seems to be increasing his strength in Ohio but Kennedy is still farther ahead. Kennedy's given more attention to Ohio than in almost any other State and leis crowds lave been very good. Ohio has several depressed economic areas and Kennedy, at the moment, seems to be leading. His aids, however, are concerned about the religious issue in the southern part of the State, along the Ohio River.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Republican Nixon seems to be increasing his strength likewise in Oklahoma, in part, reaping his share of the dubious benefits of the religions issue. The Kennedy forces, perhaps, purposely conservative, to avoid overconfidence, concede that they're trailing in Oklahoma.
     Mr. VANOCUR. In Oregon, the Nixon camp claims its man is in good shape. Kennedy strategists rate the State a tossup. Kennedy campaigned extensively throughout the State in winning the May primary and he's well known there.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Like so many other big States, Pennsylvania is close, perhaps, because both sides are fighting hard for it and both promise to do so until the very end. Both candidates have campaigned extensively there. Nixon campaigned there today. Kennedy is going back. There are depressed areas where Kennedy might pick up votes and this could be decisive. Likewise, the Democrats have an effective political organization. The Republicans claim that they're making headway in Pennsylvania. The religious issue cuts both ways there. Fundamentalist areas where a Catholic candidate is expected to draw a relatively few votes - areas with a large Catholic population where Kennedy is expected to do well. But on balance Pennsylvania is still in doubt.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Rhode Island with its four votes is as safe for Kennedy as Massachusetts.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Both sides rate South Carolina a tossup. Vice President Nixon will visit the State soon, hoping this will push him over.
     Mr. VANOCUR. South Dakota, it seems a sure thing at this time that the State is in the Nixon column.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Still another close race is in Tennessee. This is a State where Lyndon Johnson's place on the Democratic ticket may help. For one thing, Governor Buford Ellington who worked for Johnson's presidential nomination aspirations at the convention, is working for the Kennedy-Johnson ticket now. Republicans are encouraged by the reception given Vice President Nixon in Tennessee.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Despite the fact that Texas is the home State of Kennedy's running mate, Lyndon Johnson, the edge here, at this time, appears to be Nixon's. Kennedy's aids, however, rate it a tossup and the great imponderable is how anti-Catholicism among the State's many Baptists will affect Kennedy's chances.
     Mr. KAPLOW. The head of the Mormon Church, the church of the Latterday Saints, has endorsed Nixon, which is one of the factors which places the republican nominee ahead at the present time in Utah.
     Mr. VANOCUR. The Republicans feel safe in Vermont. The Democrats think the race closer than the Republicans imagine. But they admit this State is leaning to Nixon.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Virginia may be picking up slightly for Kennedy but Nixon is believed to be ahead there, perhaps, by enough to carry him through November 8. It is a conservative State. Also, Democratic Senator Harry Byrd, a man with considerable influence, apparently intends to sit it out without endorsing his party's national candidates, even with Texan Lyndon Johnson on the ticket.
     Mr. VANOCUR. In Washington State, another simple report - both sides rate this State a tossup.
     Mr. KAPLOW. John Kennedy's already got a lot of campaigning done in West Virginia by way of his decisive primary victory there. There are a number of depressed areas in West Virginia, a situation which is blamed generally on the Republican administration. Kennedy ahead in West Virginia and unlikely to be overtaken.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Nixon forces say the State of Wisconsin is leaning toward the Vice President. Kennedy's forces rate it a tossup but point out that the Vice President did not do well in the percentage of the total State vote in the April primary. Kennedy is also being helped by Democratic Gov. Gaylord Nelson, who is running for a second term. But the race in Wisconsin is tight.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Wyoming, at the moment, is figured in the Nixon column. This, incidentally, is one of the few States the Vice President has yet to visit.
     Mr. VANOCUR. Summing up on the Kennedy camp. Kennedy's aids display an unmistakable air of confidence with a possible exception of Texas, they feel that Kennedy is either ahead or moving up in all the major States that will decide this election. Their one great fear at the moment is overconfidence. They are telling party workers not to let down. Publicly they are running scared, privately they feel they have a winner.
     Mr. KAPLOW. Summing up on the Nixon camp. Nixon strategists are trying to cross check recent reports of improving Kennedy fortunes, by saying they are being generated by the Kennedy team itself in an attempt to start a bandwagon psychology. And whether this is so or not, the Nixon camp knows it has an uphill battle. It can be expected to seek all effective ways to break through in the final weeks. Perhaps this will involve a new catchy issue. Perhaps President Eisenhower will be prevailed upon to do more. But whatever this true standing is now in this race, it can, indeed, be affected mightily by developments in these last two and a half weeks. And Mr. Nixon is banking on this.
     Mr. McGEE. Well, if you were keeping score during Vanocur and Kaplow's reports, your figure should read 193 votes for Kennedy, 114 for Nixon, with 230 votes, enough to give victory to either man, undecided. A final report on the campaign up to date. Today President Eisenhower was in Palm Springs, Calif., playing golf at the El Dorado Country Club, and he called reporters over to the practice green and he said, "I'm going into the political field." And then he announced that he and Vice President Nixon will appear on a nationwide television program, November 2, 6 days before the election. They will address a Republican rally at the Coliseum in New York, after riding together through the streets of the city in a motorcade. Later, Presidential Press Secretary Hagerty indicated Mr. Eisenhower will make at least two more official campaign speeches for Nixon. One on nationwide television and radio, the evening of November 7, 1 day before election day. Frank McGee, NBC News, good evening.

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