Correspondents: Merrill Mueller, Leon Pearson, Elmer Peterson, Floyd Kalber, Glenn Wilson, Tom Petit, Bill Ryan.
     Producer: James L. Holton. Announcer: Gene Hamilton.

     ANNOUNCER. The Countdown - X Minus Thirty-three. (Tape begins)

     VOICE (simulated intercom with rocket firing in background). * * * Four, three, two, one.

     ANNOUNCER. NBC News presents "Election Countdown," coast to coast, the second in a series of campaign progress reports from around the Nation as the 1960 presidential election day approaches. Our two anchor men in Radio Central are Merrill Mueller and Leon Pearson. Here is their roundup report, 33 days before E-day.
     MUELLER. It's apparent, even 33 days before the election, that five big States will hold the keys to the White House for Richard Nixon or John Kennedy on November 8. These five are: New York, California, Pennsylvania, Illinois, and Ohio. Led by the Nation's most populous State, New York, and by the Nation's fastest growing State, California, each of these five States is individually a powerhouse in the electoral college, and it's in their total of 161 electoral votes that victory lies, rather than somewhere within the 28 million popular votes expected from this bloc alone. These key States have many things in common. All have big cities, big minority groups, sizable proportions of the Catholic religion, huge labor union combines, and massive expansion of suburban communities. For our purposes, on these election specials, three of these States are in the northeastern region - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York. One, California, is in our Far West grouping; and one, Illinois, in the Midwest. Though there's a regional imbalance, these States represent 60 percent of the electoral votes needed for victory.
     But before we study tonight's outlook in these five States, let's review the survey by NBC News on the national trends in terms of the electoral college. Here is Leon Pearson.
     PEARSON. Well, last week, our reporters from the five areas, as distinct from the five States that we're talking about this evening, showed Kennedy leading in the Southern States. Also, Kennedy was leading in the Midwestern States. In the Southwest, Nixon was reported ahead. In the Far West, Nixon leading there, too. Thus, for these four areas, it was two favoring Kennedy and two favoring Nixon. Then, turning to the Northeast, and we include Ohio in that grouping, this proved to be an area of great indecision. Three key States - Pennsylvania, Ohio, and New York - were reported as undetermined, as was Illinois in the midwestern group. Now, if tonight's reports on these "swing" States are more definite, we should have a
much sharper picture altogether. So, to sum up last week's reports, we had Kennedy leading in States with 180 electoral votes; Nixon in States with 162. But the largest figure was the undetermined States - 195. We hope to be able to cut that down somewhat this evening.
     MUELLER. And so we turn to the study of the blockbusters, working from the west coast, eastward. This means California, which will be one of the last States to close its polls, one of the last to report its results, and it could be greatly affected by trends in the giants of the East. California - 32 electoral votes, the Nation's second largest and fastest growing State, with the third largest city in the Union and 6 million voters. Here's tonight's picture of the Golden State from Elmer Peterson, NBC News, Los Angeles.

     PETERSON. With a month to go, California - still on the fence, still doubtful, still a big question mark in the opinion of virtually every political expert and editor in this State. California's vital 32 electoral votes could go either way - to Vice President Nixon or Senator Kennedy - on the basis of such imponderables as party line vote, religious issue, and last-minute international developments which might help Nixon, plus the complications of population growth - all the strange political twists that have developed out of such growth, as big metropolitan areas have mushroomed out into what were California farming areas with great suburban areas taking over orange groves and dairy farms. For one thing, it's hard to distinguish between a rural vote and a city vote in California. The farmers in the big central valleys are pretty strongly Democratic - very responsive to the water issue, among other things. But the farmers are overwhelmed by the city and suburban vote. Los Angeles County, once the largest agricultural county in the Nation, now is overrun by people. According to registration figures just released, this county alone now has a record 3,011,379 voters - over 40 percent of the California total. With the Democrats leading 1,742,190 against 1,165,002 Republicans. But, and this is important, there now are more voters in Los Angeles County living outside the city than inside the city. And, among those living outside the city, in more or less suburban areas, there are 7 Republicans to 9 Democrats, compared to only 4 Republicans to 7 Democrats in the city proper. The signs are that suburban living usually involving home ownership and some civic responsibility, brings conservatism in politics, whether among California Democrats or Republicans.
     The suburban area of Whittier, Nixon's hometown, still stands 10-to-6, Republican. In the final analysis, four big California
counties, all complicated with interwoven city and suburban areas, will swing the California vote. The Kennedy forces are counting on the farmers, labor unions, and the large number of retired people who are intrigued by his plans for medical care for the aged. He may be helped by the 600,000 Negro vote and the half million Mexican-Americans who may be influenced by the religious issue. Nixon's hope is to get a full Republican turnout at the polls and then pick up enough conservative Democratic votes, largely among the great new suburban areas, to break the Democrats' 3-to-2 advantage in voter registration. Last week it looked as though Nixon had a slight advantage. Then, Stevenson campaigned in California; and his California supporters, who had been dragging their feet since being disappointed at the Democratic Convention, began to close ranks. Next week Nixon will go after the California vote. This could again tip the political scales, but indications now are that California will remain doubtful until the final vote is in.

     MUELLER. From the Pacific, across the Rockies, through the Great Plains and the Southwest into the Midwest, there's no other key State more important than Illinois. Twenty-seven electoral votes and some 5 million voters. Merchandiser, farmer, manufacturer, shipper - Illinois is a cross section of the Nation's power and wealth. Here's the outlook as of this date from Floyd Kalber, NBC News, Chicago.

     KALBER. The 27 electoral votes of the great State of Illinois; despite many predictions and authoritative surveys, still can be considered a political plum available for picking by either Richard Nixon or John Kennedy. Neither of the candidates has slighted the State. Both have canvassed it with the knowledge that it is still available to the man who can convince the most voters. Kennedy has even gone so far as to predict a victory here in the fashion of Harry Truman in 1948. Several old questions and a couple new ones figure into the voting here. It has traditionally been a battle of Cook County, that's Chicago, versus downstate Illinois. Reports have it the Cook County Democratic machine of Mayor Richard Daley is operating smoothly, while downstate, the Republican bandwagon is sputtering. The farm situation, which has been bad for many years downstate, is partly responsible for this. But the main reason for a switch to the Democratic all over the State this year could be the gubernatorial battle. William Stratton has defied his Republican Party leaders and is running for a third term. This might not be so bad, if his own administration hadn't been riddled with scandal the past 4 years. Stratton's opponent is young, energetic, handsome Otto Kerner, who is making his first bid in statewide politics. The experts say he now has the edge. Those same experts feel that Kerner, in winning, could swing many votes to John Kennedy and thus provide the balance of power in this State. Religion is a factor in Illinois, too. Metropolitan Chicago is said to be the most Catholic city in - the United States - as high as 50 percent. Downstate is generally considered Protestant. Kennedy may lose many votes on the religion issue in the southern third of Illinois. An issue that is comparatively new, but growing, in all metropolitan areas, is that of the population shift to the suburbs and new vote registrations.
     Many voters have deserted Chicago for the nearby small towns. On reregistration in the suburbs, a good portion of them are changing party affiliation; and statistics show that the ranks of the independents have grown. Some reports are the reregistration is favoring the Democratic Party. Du Page County, western neighbor to Chicago, known as a heavy Republican stronghold for years, is cited as a prime example. Two years ago the GOP had a 3-to-1 margin in that county that contains many Chicago suburbs. This has now been cut down to 2-to-1. Since 1940 Illinois has given its electoral votes twice to Franklin Roosevelt, once to Harry Truman, and twice to Dwight Eisenhower. Trends over the years show the strong influence of the "image," or the strong personality involved in the campaigning, the overwhelming effect of that strength. In this 1960 presidential campaign, that "image" is lacking and this only makes the race in Illinois more unpredictable.

     MUELLER. Right next door - Ohio, 25 electoral votes, 4½ million voters, struggling with both the farm, the industrial, and the minority questions of this campaign. The trends to this hour, reported by Glenn Wilson, station WLW, Cincinnati.

     WILSON. In Ohio, the coming November election is something like the weather. Everyone's talking about it, but no one, including a legion of experts, is able to predict what's going to happen. One thing is certain though - religion is the biggest issue - the one that's got the voters talking and speculating. When political discussions was hottest, you can bet that the religious aspect of the campaign has reared its touchy head. Oddly enough, though everyone admits the importance of the religious issue, no one seems to know whether it will gain or lose votes for Senator Kennedy. Most seem to think that it will split the votes fairly evenly. Ohio's other big issues are those of the Nation as a whole - the general economic situation and foreign affairs. As a matter of fact, a purely statewide issue is as difficult to find as a Republican in Georgia's piney woods. The only one that bears a semblance of a statewide issue is the curtailed highway program with its lack of Federal funds.
     But this program is still not as important with the voters as the big national issues. U.S. foreign prestige is important here in Ohio, and this is Vice President Nixon's big selling point. Ohio Republican Party members feel the stressing of his administrative experience is paying off here in Ohio and that Khrushchev's presence in the country is also 'helping the Vice President. Another factor is the selection of Ambassador Lodge for the No. 2 spot. This gave the Republican ticket a strong image of being well-versed in foreign affairs. Ambassador Lodge's selection was not welcome by the more conservative Ohio Republicans who also dislike Mr. Nixon's agreement with Governor Rockefeller. But this discontent was smoothed over by the State's No. 1 conservative Republican, former Senator John Bricker, who has helped to unify the two GOP factions here in Ohio. Kennedy's supporters feel the Democratic emphasis on rapid economic growth will go over well in the northern industrial cities, such as Cleveland, Youngstown, Canton, Mansfield, Akron, and Toledo. And they also look for a Democratic strength in the rural areas based on dissatisfaction with Secretary Benson. The suburban areas are a question mark and could swing the election. Another important factor here in Ohio is the TV debates, and the consensus is that Senator Kennedy came out on top in the first one. And Democrats are confident that he will do well in the others. The only point of agreement among the experts is that the election will be close. If held right now, it looks like Kennedy by a small margin. If U.S. prestige goes up between now and election day, or if Premier Khrushchev's setbacks in the U.N. are credited to the administration, then Mr. Nixon will gain. Either way, it's too close in Ohio to give either candidate any comfort.

     MUELLER. Next, Pennsylvania - 32 electoral votes, steel and coal country, affected most severely by the Nation's current economic problems. Some 5½ million voters are expected to turn out, and here's tonight's outlook from Tom Petit, NBC News, Philadelphia.

     PETIT. Pennsylvania Democrats regard one fact as highly significant. For the first time in Pennsylvania political history, they have a statewide lead in party registration, not much of a lead - about 20,000 voters in a total of over 5½ million eligible voters - but still important in a State which hasn't gone Democratic in a presidential election since 1944. Some key factors in assessing Pennsylvania - Democrats control the big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh; there are large areas of unemployment in coal mining regions which happen to have a large Catholic vote, too. Democrats think these factors are on their side. On the other hand, there are rockbound Republican rural areas where Protestantism is so strong that almost the entire two northern tiers of counties are called the Bible Belt. Besides, while Philadelphia is strongly Democratic, it has strong Republican suburbs which are booming in population. But even there, Democratic registration is somewhat on the increase. There is little doubt that both presidential candidates consider "Suburbia" a real battleground in Pennsylvania. When Philadelphia proper voted against Eisenhower in 1952 and '56, Republicans in suburban counties more than made up the difference to give him the State's 32 electoral votes. This year, late in October, both Kennedy and Nixon will stump hard in Philadelphia suburbs - Nixon trying to hold and boost Republican strength; Kennedy trying to cut into the Republican tradition. In effect, this means both consider Philadelphia sewed up for the Democrats, the only question being the size of the Kennedy margin which the Kennedy machine can roll up. Republicans privately admit that Nixon could lose the State if Kennedy's margin in Philadelphia is better than 150,000 to 200,000, and Democrats say they can do that easily. Republicans aren't so sure. But here's why Republicans are hard pressed to cut into the city vote in Philadelphia - the city is 50 percent Catholic, 20 percent Negro, and 20 percent Jewish; and the Democrats have wooed these elements pretty successfully in the past. The real decision in Pennsylvania may lie in Suburbia, and political experts here say the Democrats may be making some inroads there. They say registered Democrats in Pennsylvania vote Democratic, but registered Republicans sometimes cross over; that, having found it fashionable to register Republican in the suburbs, new suburbanites may commit heresy in the privacy of the voting booth. This is what the Democrats are counting on, in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh suburbs, to give them an insurance margin of victory, along with the "sure" city vote. But Republicans claim the State outlook is very, very close with a slight edge for Nixon. But here's how impartial observers look at it.
     If the Republicans publicly admit the race is so close, Nixon in actuality must be trailing. With Democrats leading in statewide registration for the first time and making some inroads in Suburbia and holding control of the big cities, then Kennedy, in fact, must be ahead. These impartial observers, tonight, would put 32 Pennsylvania electoral votes in the Kennedy column. But the margin will be close - perhaps 50,000 votes.

     MUELLER. Finally, in our study of blockbusters, we come to New York - 45 electoral votes, the Nation's largest State with the Nation's largest city. Seven and a half million popular votes may answer the pleas of secondary figures, rather than the chief contenders, themselves. Here's the report from Bill Ryan, NBC News, New York.

     RYAN. The biggest plum of them all, New York State, still looks to be a tossup - one in which the basic, final trend will develop very close to election day. In presidential voting, the State has gone Republican three times in a row - for Dewey in '48, for Eisenhower in '52 and '56. Republican sources tell me they expect it to go Republican again, predicting a Nixon victory by a margin that will range from "close" to "comfortable." Democratic sources in New York State are also predicting victory with their estimates of the margin ranging from "close" to a "big win" for Kennedy and Johnson. Both sides agree on this: That foreign policy, international affairs make up the major issue on which the outcome of the election in New York will depend. Democrats say that, for a time, there was concern in their party over Senator Kennedy's criticisms of administration foreign policy and Mr. Nixon's assertions that these criticisms were improper while Castro and Khrushchev were here in this country. Now Democrats are saying the Senator handled that matter with great skill, that New Yorkers heard his criticisms and saw Khrushchev and Castro in their midsts and that gave greater weight to Kennedy's words.
     New York Republicans, though, claim that Nixon-Lodge have a record on opposition to international communism that cannot be faulted; and therefore, they see their candidate as winning. There are also some Republicans in the State who say one of the surprises of the election might be a lack of a Catholic-bloc vote for Kennedy, in view of the Church's longstanding battle against communism and the Nixon-Lodge record on that score. One other mention of the religious issue: Democrats claim that the Norman Vincent Peale incident helped Senator Kennedy - gave him a certain number of sympathy votes from minority groups. Republicans do not challenge this, but they do say that some of the fervor of the anti-Peale votes has cooled down. The traditional pattern in New York has been this: The Democrats pick up a whopping majority in New York City, and the Republicans cut into it - many times overcome it - with a crushing Republican majority in the counties outside the city. Republicans say that Senator Kennedy will have to come out of New York City with an irreducible bulge of 750,000 votes in order to have a chance of taking New York State. They also talk of the counties outside the city giving Mr. Nixon a majority of 1 million votes and the 45 electoral votes New York will cast for the winner. Well, Democrats and Republicans are both involved in massive "get-out-the-vote" campaigns, both sides claiming that increased registration is to their benefit. There is this shift in the voting pattern in New York State. In 1944 New York City cast more than 52 percent of the States total vote. In 1958 the city cast only 41 percent of the State's total vote. The Democrats claim those who moved to the suburbs took their Democratic voting tendencies with them. The Republicans don't think so. At any rate, New York City will probably cast 40 percent of the State's vote; the four suburban counties nearest the city, 20 percent; and the rest, of the State, the remaining 40 percent. How the vote will split is not yet crystallized. New York, a month away from election day, still looks like an even-money bet.

     PEARSON. Well, that's the lot for those five key States. I've been taking some notes here. Peterson, California, no longer gives the State to Nixon, as he did last week. He says Kennedy has come up to a "par" with Nixon. Kalber in Illinois says it's the old struggle between Chicago Democratic and downstate Republicans. Either candidate might win, though he makes the comment the Republican machine is "sputtering." Wilson in Ohio says suburban areas could swing the election. Nobody knows for sure, but, if the election were held now, Kennedy presumably would win by a small margin. Petit in Pennsylvania, the only one to show a definite position, says that State with its 32 votes is in the Kennedy column, but by a close margin. Ryan in New York says Kennedy will need a whopping majority from New York City to offset Republican strength upstate, and the outcome is an even-money bet. Well, altogether, compared with our reports of last week, the only shifts that have been noted are in favor of Kennedy. Finally, I noticed from one man to another a great deal of emphasis on the importance of the voters who have moved from cities to suburbs. Merrill, you're a suburbanite, yourself. What change do you see?
     MUELLER. Well, I don't think there's going to be any importance there, Leon, in the sense that the importance will be all to one party. For example, I live in a very Republican town; namely, Greenwich, Conn.; but in its growth over the last 10 years, the Democrats have grown as well, and the margin remains just about the same in relation of Republicans to Democrats.
     PEARSON. I noticed that Glenn Wilson, speaking from Ohio, says that religion is the biggest issue and we got that in a number of the comments last week. But it's not all Catholics for Kennedy, according to Bill Ryan. Just a moment ago, Bill said there's a surprise factor here. There's a lack of solid Catholic support for Kennedy, what with the Catholic opposition to communism and the impression made by the Nixon camp that he and Lodge are the stronger team in this respect.
     MUELLER. I doubt that the Catholics will ever vote as a bloc - a solid bloc - for any one man.
     PEARSON. I wonder if I might be pardoned for saying something very elementary in here in the last few seconds that most voters know but sometimes forget. That is that each State gives all its votes to one candidate, no matter how close the vote in that State. That makes it very interesting. Perhaps, some would say unfair. But the minority vote, no matter how big, is lost in the final reckoning. Well, tonight we've concentrated on the five key States where the decision is still somewhat in doubt. Two weeks from tonight, we'll get reports from all 50 States, as we did last week. This is Leon Pearson with Merrill Mueller, NBC News.
     ANNOUNCER. You have been listening to "Election Countdown," coast-to-coast, a continuing progress report on the 1960 election campaign. Our next report will be broadcast 2 weeks from tonight, Thursday, October 20. Tomorrow night, Vice President Nixon and Senator John Kennedy will take part in the second in their series of great debates. Their third meeting will be broadcast next Thursday evening. Both programs will be carried on NBC radio from 7:30 to 8:30 p.m., New York time. NBC News will resume the "Election Countdown" 2 weeks from tonight, with X Minus Nineteen.

     VOICE (simulated intercom with rocket firing in background). * * * Four, three, two, one.

     ANNOUNCER. This is an NBC News Department presentation, James L. Holton, producer; Gene Hamilton speaking.