To the Congress o f the United States:
The gold outflow of the past
three years has dramatically focused world attention on a fundamental change
that has been occurring in the economic position of the United States.
Our balance of payments - the accounting which shows the result of all
of our trade and financial relations with the outside world - has become
one of the key factors in our national economic life. Mainly because that
balance of payments has been in deficit we have lost gold.
This loss of gold is naturally
important to us, but it also concerns the whole free world. For we are
the principal banker of the free world and any potential weakness in our
dollar spells trouble, not only for us but also for our friends and allies
who rely on the dollar to finance a substantial portion, of their trade.
We must therefore manage our balance of payments in accordance with our
responsibilities. This means that the United States must in the decades
ahead, much more than at any time in the past, take its balance of payments
into account when formulating its economic policies and conducting its
economic affairs.
Economic progress at home is
still the first requirement for economic strength abroad. Accordingly,
the first requirement for restoring balance in our international payments
is to take all possible steps to insure the effective performance of our
own economic system - to improve our technology, lower our production and
marketing costs, and devise new and superior products, under conditions
of price stability. The real wealth of a nation resides in its farms and
factories and the people who man them. A dynamic economy producing goods
competitively priced in world markets will maintain the strength of the
dollar.
Thanks to our international
reserves we have time, if we use it wisely, in which to strengthen our
domestic economy and make it fully competitive with that of other nations.
Our situation is one that justifies concern but not panic or alarm.
In my message on February 2,
I dealt with the measures for reviving our domestic economy. The steps
I now propose will strengthen our dollar position and insure that our gold
reserves are employed effectively to facilitate the commerce of the free
nations and to protect the stability of their currencies. Because these
steps supplement the policies for strengthening our domestic economy, and
because we can take them calmly and deliberately, they are not for that
reason any less important or less urgent. Those that are within the present
authority of the Executive will be the subject of vigorous action. Where
action by the Congress is required I urge early consideration and approval.
For the past decade our international
transactions have resulted in a deficit-payments that were in excess of
receipts - in every year except that of the Suez crisis, 1957. The surplus
of our exports over our imports, while substantial, has not been large
enough to cover our expenditures for United States military establishments
abroad, for capital invested abroad by private American businesses and
for government economic assistance and loan programs. All of these outlays
are essential. Our military establishments in foreign countries protect
the national security. Private investment promotes world economic growth
and trade and, through the return of profits to our country, will strengthen
our balance of payments in future years. Our economic assistance programs,
much the smallest of these three items in its effect on payments balance,
is vital in the continuing struggle against tyranny and oppression, and
the poverty on which they feed.
Over the period 1951 to 1957
the deficit in our balance of payments averaged about $1.0 billion annually.
These did not result in a net outflow of gold from the United States; foreign
monetary authorities, banks and private individuals held these earnings
as dollars or claims on dollars. Thus our gold reserves were $22.8 billions
at the end of 1950 and $22.9 at the end of 1957. But during these years
the dollar holdings by foreign countries increased from $8.4 billion at
the end of 1950 to almost $15 billion at the end of 1957.
These earlier deficits in our
balance of payments were, in fact, favorable in their world effect. They
helped to restore foreign monetary systems by enabling foreign countries
to earn the dollars which they needed to rebuild their international reserves.
They made it possible for the industralized countries of Western Europe
to restore the convertibility of their currencies, thus freeing world trade
and payments from exchange control. This was of benefit to the export trade
of the United States. However, this growth in foreign dollar holdings placed
upon the United States a special responsibility - that of maintaining the
dollar as the principal reserve currency of the free world. This required
that the dollar be considered by many countries to be as good as gold.
It is our responsibility to sustain this confidence.
In 1958 and 1959 the deficit
in our balance of payments sharply increased - to $3.5 billion in 1958
and to $3.8 billion in 1959. This came about mainly because of lagging
exports and rising imports. There was no significant increase in our outlays
for military expenditures, private investment or government economic assistance.
However in these years, unlike the period 1951-57, the deficit resulted
in large transfers of gold to foreign accounts as well as a further increase
in foreign dollar holdings. For the two years together, 1958 and 1959,
gold transfers to foreign accounts were $3.0 billion while foreign dollar
holdings by foreign countries increased by another $4.3 billion. These
gold transfers did not make the underlying balance of payments fundamentally
worse. They did reflect a decision by foreigners to take more of their
earnings in gold and to hold less in dollars.
Last year, 1960, the surplus
of our exports of goods and services over our imports increased from $2.2
billion in 1959 to $5.8 billion. This was caused, principally, by an increase
- amounting to more than $3 billion - in our exports. This once more reduced
what may be called our basic deficit - it was only about $1.5 billion for
the year. However, during 1960 there was a large movement abroad of short-term
capital. Favorable interest rates abroad, a high rate of growth and good
investment prospects in Europe and some speculative fears concerning the
future value of the dollar all played a part. It is estimated that this
outward flow of short-term funds was between $2 and $2.5 billion, and this
was the crucial factor in raising the over-all deficit to $3.8 billion.
Of this, $1.7 billion were transferred in the form of gold and $2.1 billion
took the form of increased foreign dollar holdings.
An outward movement of short-term
funds such as that which occurred in 1960 should not be considered a part
of the basic deficit. Such movements are quickly reversible in response
to changes in interest rates and other business factors here and abroad.
Moreover, insofar as short-term funds transferred to foreign financial
centers consist of U.S.-owned capital, they create United States claims
against the recipient country. In the new era of convertible currencies
upon which we have entered, we may expect that short-term money will continue
to flow back and forth. I have requested the Secretary of State and the
Secretary of the Treasury to work for still closer cooperation between
the monetary and financial authorities of the industrialized free nations
with a view toward avoiding excessive short-term money flows which could
be upsetting to the orderly development of international trade and payments.
In sum our basic deficit of
$1.5 billions is of manageable proportions. And it is this basic deficit
which affects the real strength of our currency. But the time has come
to end this deficit. It must be ended by responsible, determined and constructive
measures.
There are other factors which
lend basic support to our monetary and financial position. Our gold reserve
now stands at $17.5 billion. This is more than 1½ times foreign
official dollar holdings and more than 90% of all foreign dollar holdings.
It is some 2/5 of the gold stock of the entire free world.
Of this $17.5 billion, gold
reserves not committed against either currency or deposits account for
nearly $6 billion. The remaining $11.5 billion are held under existing
regulations as a reserve against Federal Reserve currency and deposits.
But these, too, can be freed to sustain the value of the dollar; and I
have pledged that the full strength of our total gold stocks and other
international reserves stands behind the value of the dollar for use if
needed.
In addition, the United States
has a quota in the International Monetary Fund of $4.1 billion. This can
be drawn upon if necessary and our access to the Fund's resources must
be regarded as part of our international reserves.
Finally beyond its liquid international
reserves, the government and citizens of the United States hold large assets
abroad. Western European countries whose currencies are now strong owe
us long-term governmental debts of $2.9 billion. Our private short-term
assets abroad now are estimated at $4½ billion. Our long-term private
investments in foreign countries - including both plants owned directly
by American companies and securities of foreign business and governments
owned by Americans - total over $44 billion, exceeding foreign investments
in the U.S. economy by some $28 billion. In any reckoning of international
assets and liabilities, the United States has a strong solvent position.
In short, powerful resources
stand behind the dollar. Our gold and monetary reserves are large; so are
the physical and monetary assets we hold throughout the world. And, in
the years ahead, if the program I previously outlined is pursued, the dollar
will have the added strength of the reviving power of the American economy
itself.
Certain firm conclusions follow:
1. The United States official
dollar price of gold can and will be maintained at $35 an ounce. Exchange
controls over trade and investment will not be invoked. Our national security
and economic assistance programs will be carried forward. Those who fear
weakness in the dollar will find their fears unfounded. Those who hope
for speculative reasons for an increase in the price of gold will find
their hopes in vain.
2. We must now gain control
of our balance of payments position so that we can achieve over-all equilibrium
in our international payments. This means that any sustained future outflow
of dollars into the monetary reserves of other countries should come about
only as the result of considered judgments as to the appropriate needs
for dollar reserves.
3. In seeking over-all equilibrium
we must place maximum emphasis on expanding our exports. Our costs and
prices must therefore be kept low; and the government must play a more
vigorous part in helping to enlarge foreign markets for American goods
and services.
4. A return to protectionism
is not a solution. Such a course would provoke retaliation; and the balance
of trade, which is now substantially in our favor, could be turned against
us with disastrous effects to the dollar.
5. The flow of resources from
the industrialized countries to the developing countries must be increased.
In all that we do to strengthen our balance of payments, we must be especially
mindful that the less developed countries remain in a weak financial position.
Help from the industrialized countries is more important than ever; we
cannot strengthen our balance of payments at the expense of the developing
countries without incurring even greater dangers to our national security.
6. The United States must take
the lead in harmonizing the financial and economic policies for growth
and stability of those industrialized nations of the world whose economic
behavior significantly influences the course of the world economy and the
trend of international payments.
To carry forward these policies
I propose a program for action, which may be divided into two parts. The
first part describes those measures which will improve domestic monetary
arrangements and strengthen international cooperation in economic and monetary
policy. These measures will help us better to meet short-term demands on
reserves such as those of recent years. The measures in the second group
are designed to correct the persisting basic deficit in our balance of
payments.
I. MEASURES TO EASE THE SHORT-TERM
DEMAND PROBLEM
1. Measures to Improve International Monetary Institutions.
Increasing international monetary reserves will be required to support the ever-growing volume of trade, services and capital movements among the countries of the free world. Until now the free nations have relied upon increased gold production and continued growth in holdings of dollars and pounds sterling. In the future, it may not always be desirable or appropriate to rely entirely on these sources. We must now, in cooperation with other lending countries, begin to consider ways in which international monetary institutions - especially the International Monetary Fund - can be strengthened and more effectively utilized, both in furnishing needed increases in reserves, and in providing the flexibility required to support a healthy and growing world economy. I am therefore directing that studies to this end be initiated promptly by the Secretary of the Treasury.
2. Use of United States Drawing Rights in the International Monetary Fund.
The United States has never made use of its drawing rights under the International Monetary Fund to meet deficits in its balance of payments. If and when appropriate, these rights should and will be exercised within the framework of Fund policies. The United States will also support continued efforts in the Fund to facilitate drawings by other members in the currencies of industrialized countries whose payments positions are in surplus and whose reserves are large. This will help to reduce the burden now borne by the dollar.
3. Special Interest Rates for Dollar Holdings by Foreign Governments and Monetary Authorities.
(a) The Federal Reserve Act should
now be amended to permit the Federal Reserve System to establish separate
maxima for rates of interest paid by member banks on time and savings deposits
held in this country by foreign governments or monetary authorities (Section
19, paragraph 14). This authority, when exercised, would enable American
banks to make a maximum competitive effort to attract and hold dollar balances
which might otherwise be converted into gold. At the same time domestic
rates, when desirable for reasons of domestic policy, could be held at
a lower level. I will shortly send to the Congress a draft of the
needed legislation.
(b) I have directed the Secretary
of the Treasury to use, whenever it appears desirable, the authority already
extended to him by the Second Liberty Bond Act to issue securities, at
special rates of interest, for subscription and holding exclusively by
foreign governments or monetary authorities. The exercise of this authority
could provide an additional inducement to hold foreign official balances
in dollars.
(c) As a final means of holding
or attracting foreign dollars, the Congress should enact a measure designed
to unify the tax treatment accorded the earning assets of foreign central
banks. At present, income derived by foreign central banks of issue from
bankers acceptances and bank deposits is exempt from tax under section
861 of the Code. Income from United States Government securities, however,
is taxable to foreign central banks in the absence of applicable tax treaty
provisions or a special ruling exempting a particular bank from taxation
under particular circumstances. Suggested legislation will shortly be forthcoming.
4. Prohibition on Holding of Gold Abroad by Americans.
The recent Executive Order forbidding the holding of gold abroad by Americans will be maintained. It was fully justified on grounds of equity. It will also help to prevent speculation in the gold market. I am directing the Secretary of the Treasury to keep me advised on steps being taken for effective enforcement. I place everyone on notice that those few American citizens who are tempted to speculate against the dollar will not profit in this manner.
II. MEASURES TO CORRECT THE BASIC PAYMENTS DEFICIT AND ACHIEVE LONGER-TERM EQUILIBRIUM
1. Action by the Senate to Approve the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
I earnestly request early action by the Senate approving United States membership in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The OECD, in which the industrialized countries of Western Europe, the United States and Canada will be joined, is of vital importance for assisting, on a cooperative basis, the developing countries of the free world. It will also provide a solid framework within which we can carry out intensive and frequent international consultations on the financial and monetary policies which must be pursued in order to achieve and maintain better balance in the international payments position.
2. Export Promotion.
The Department of Commerce will
provide energetic leadership to American industry in a drive to develop
export markets. Firms and industries will be encouraged to step up their
efforts to develop exports and given every assistance in doing so. As American
industry comes to realize the vital role of export earnings for our foreign
policy, I have little doubt of its response.
We will promptly increase our
commercial representatives and facilities abroad. This is a joint program
of the Departments of Commerce and State which must proceed with drive
and conviction in order to produce effective results. The budget which
has already gone to Congress requests $1,250,000 for the State Department
to add 41 Foreign Service Commercial Attaches overseas, together with 48
experienced foreign nationals and supporting American staff.
The new budget requests will
also allow an increase in overseas commercial facilities. The Commerce
Department is doubling its Trade Mission program from 11 to 18 per year
and will provide more useful information to our overseas posts. I am ordering
rapid completion of our two new foreign trade centers at London and Bangkok
and have requested the departments to explore whether three more could
be added next year in Africa, Latin America and Europe.
3. Cost and Price Stabilization.
Our export promotion efforts, no matter how well devised or energetically pursued, will not be effective unless American goods are competitively priced. Our domestic policies - of government, of business and of labor - must be directed to maintaining competitive costs, improving productivity and stabilizing or where possible lowering prices. Measures to achieve these ends which are important for the domestic economy are even more vital for our international competitive position. I have already stated my intention of creating an Advisory Committee on Labor and Management Policy to encourage productivity gains, advance automation and encourage sound wage policies and price stability.
4. Export Guarantees and Financing.
Our Export-Import Bank must play an increasingly important role in our export promotion efforts. Last year the Export-Import Bank announced a widening of the facilities which it offers for extending credit to American exporters. Despite the improvements made, these facilities are not yet adequate, nor are they comparable to those offered by foreign countries, especially those offered to small and medium- sized exporting concerns and those offered for the financing of consumer goods. I am directing the President of the Export-Import Bank, by April 1, to prepare and submit to the Secretary of the Treasury, as Chairman of the National Advisory Council on International Monetary and Financial Problems, a new program under the Export-Import Bank to place our exporters on a basis of full equality with their competitors in other countries. Also, I have asked the Secretary of the Treasury to initiate and submit by the same date a study of methods through which private financial institutions can participate more broadly in providing export credit facilities.
5. Foreign Travel to the United States.
Foreign travel to the United States constitutes a large potential market hitherto virtually untapped. American travelers annually spend some $2 billion in foreign countries. Foreign travelers only spend about $1 billion in this country. Economic conditions in many foreign countries have improved to the point where a strong travel promotion effort by this country can be expected to yield significant results. The Department of Commerce, in cooperation with the Departments of State and Treasury, will announce shortly a major new program to encourage foreign travel in the United States along the lines envisaged in S. 3102, introduced by Senator Magnuson at the last session of the Congress. This program will include the establishment of travel offices abroad; new advertising campaigns; action to simplify our visa and entry procedures for temporary visitors; and efforts to relax foreign restrictions on travel to the United States. The program will be energetically administered in the Department of Commerce. I am asking the Secretary of Commerce to report in full on plans and prospects by April 1.
6. Agricultural Exports.
Our agricultural industry, which is of unparalleled efficiency, must make its full contribution to our payments balance. I am directing the Secretary of Agriculture to report on all feasible and internationally desirable means of expanding our exports of farm products, and to emphasize the need for export expansion as a primary objective of our new farm programs.
7. Policy on Economic Assistance.
Our foreign economic assistance programs are now being administered in such a way as to place primary emphasis on the procurement of American goods. This assistance, accompanied as it is by the export of American products, does not therefore have a significantly adverse effect on our balance of payments. (Not more than 20% of the funds expended for economic grants, development loan assistance, technical assistance and contributions to international organizations, which amounted to $2.6 billion in 1960, is today available for expenditures outside the United States, and we intend to keep an even closer review of these items.) These restrictions will be maintained until reasonable over-all equilibrium has been achieved. Then the United States will discuss with other capital-exporting countries the desirability of instituting common policies for world-wide procurement in the administration of economic development or assistance programs.
8. Tariffs, Restrictions and Discriminations Against American Exports.
Quota discriminations against American exports have largely disappeared with the return of currency convertibility. We will press for prompt removal of the few restrictions that still exist, as well as for the maximum liberalization of remaining nondiscriminatory quotas in other industralized countries, which apply mainly to agricultural exports. In the tariff negotiations now going forward under GATT we shall seek the fullest possible measure of tariff reduction by foreign countries to the benefit of our exports.
9. Promotion of Foreign Investment in the United States.
We shall press those Western European countries with strong reserve positions to eliminate the restrictions they still maintain limiting the opportunities for their citizens to invest in the United States and other foreign countries. Also, we are initiating, through the Department of Commerce, a new program to bring investment opportunities in the United States to the attention of foreign investors in the industrialized countries.
10. Abuse of "tax havens." Taxation of American Investment Abroad.
I shall recommend that the Congress enact legislation to prevent the abuse of foreign "tax havens" by American capital abroad as a means of tax avoidance. In addition, I have asked the Secretary of the Treasury to report by April 1 on whether present tax laws may be stimulating in undue amounts the flow of American capital to the industrial countries abroad through special preferential treatment., and to report further on what remedial action may be required. But we shall not penalize legitimate private investment abroad, which will strengthen our trade and currency in future years.
11. Foreign Assistance Contribution to the Less Developed Countries and the Common Defense.
It is indispensable that the industrialized countries of the free world join in undertaking systematic budgetary contributions for economic assistance to the less developed countries and the common defense. These contributions should be fully commensurate with their economic and financial positions. Some countries are fulfilling this responsibility; it is a matter of disappointment that others have not yet undertaken to do so. Such actions are important in the short run to achieve a better balance in international trade and payments. Even more important, they are essential to the continuing and effective discharge of our common responsibilities for free world security, economic growth and stability.
12. Reduction of Customs Exemption for Returning American Travelers.
After World War II, as part of our efforts to relieve the dollar shortage which then plagued the world, Congress provided for two additional increases of $300 and $100 in the duty-free allowance for returning travelers, for a total of $500. The primary purpose for this change having vanished, I am recommending legislation to withdraw this stimulus to American spending abroad and return to the historic basic duty-free allowance of $100.
13. Centralized Review of Dollar Outlays.
Through the Bureau of the Budget, it has long been our sound financial practice to centralize the review of total spending of the Departments and Agencies of the Government of the United States, including their spending abroad. Under present circumstances, foreign outlays must be examined in a new perspective. Accordingly, I am instructing the Director of the Bureau of the Budget, in consultation with the Secretary of the Treasury, to develop special procedures for analyzing that part of the requests of departments and agencies for spending authority which will involve overseas outlays to insure that our budgetary decisions will be taken with full understanding of their projected impact on the country's balance of payments.
14. U.S. Military Expenditures Abroad.
National security expenditures
abroad constitute one of the largest items in the outflow of dollars, amounting
to about $3.0 billion a year. We must maintain a fully effective military
force wherever necessary and for as long as needed. While it is clear that
we must exercise maximum prudence in our dollar outlays abroad, it has
become clear that the present limitation on dependents was not the best
way to accomplish this savings, and that this limitation was seriously
hurting morale and recruitment in the armed forces. At the same time, the
Secretary of Defense has informed me that equivalent dollar savings could
be made through other measures, including limitations on expenditures abroad
by military personnel for tourism and the purchase of durable consumer
goods. Accordingly I have directed him to rescind the limitation on dependents
and instead to put these measures into effect immediately.
I have also asked him to review
the possibilities for savings in the logistic support of our forces, including
the combined use of facilities with our allies. We shall also, where appropriate,
urge the purchase of the newer weapons and weapons systems by those of
our allies who are financially capable of doing so. We shall continue the
policy inaugurated last November of emphasizing United States procurement
for our military forces abroad wherever practicable, even though some increased
budgetary cost may be incurred. Since foreign procurement of this nature
has amounted to almost $1 billion a year, significant savings in dollar
outflow can be expected - and I am asking the Secretary of Defense to report
on these and the other savings by no later than April 1st, to see if further
steps are needed then.
CONCLUSION
These measures, combined with increasing confidence in the dollar abroad and steady economic growth at home, can cure the basic long-term deficit in our balance of payments and check the outflow of gold. They symbolize a new dimension of this nation's foreign and domestic economic policies - a new area of difficult problems - but they are problems which can be met by forceful and timely legislative and executive action.
JOHN F. KENNEDY