I want to talk with you today about American
economic policy. No topic could be of more importance at this or any other
time. Unless the economy is functioning properly, our people will not be
employed at good wages, our businessmen will not produce efficiently and
profitably, our farmers will not receive fair prices, and our Nation will
lack funds for defense, schools, roads and other public services, and the
means to help strengthen the cause of world freedom.
Today, as never before, America needs a strong
economy - not only to sustain our defenses - but also to demonstrate to
other nations - particularly those wavering between our system and the
Communists - that the way of freedom is the way to strength and security
- that their future lies with us and not with the Soviet Union. That is
the basic issue of 1960-and that is why each candidate must make clear
his views on economic policy.
I do not know whether to regard with alarm
or indignation the common assumption of an inevitable conflict between
the business community and the Democratic Party. That is one of the great
political myths of our time, carefully fostered. The business community
has well served the Democratic Party - and I believe the Democratic Party
has well served the business community. Ours is a national party. It draws
its support from all segments of the community. Over the years it has benefited
greatly by the public and political service, support, advice and assistance
of American business leaders. As the party's standard bearer today, I need
- and I ask - the suport and help of our businessmen, and I would do the
same in a new Democratic administration. It will not be a businessmen's
administration but neither will it be a labor administration - or a farmers'
administration. It will be an administration representing, and seeking
to serve, all Americans.
Just as the Democratic Party has benefited
from the contributions of business leaders, so has the business community
benefited from the contributions of business leaders, so has the business
community benefited from the contributions of the Democratic Party.
And I also believe that the business community
- and our basic economic system - have well served the American people.
They have provided a very large proportion of our people with a very high
and constantly improving standard of living. They have provided the sinew
and sustenance to make us the first nation of the world. They have brought
a wide array of modern goods within the income of most of our people.
In short, why should my party, if successful,
want to change the fundamental structure of a system which has performed
so well? Where the performance is inadequate, we would hope to improve
it. Where there are economic injustices, we would hope to correct them.
But this would be basically true regardless
of who wins. No President - Democratic or Republican - will be satisfied
with growing unemployment, lagging economic growth or excessive price inflation
that adversely affects our trade with other nations as well as our stability
here at home.
And both candidates are also equally opposed
to excessive, unjustified or unnecessary government intervention in the
economy - to needlessly unbalanced budgets and centralized government.
I do not believe that Washington should do for the people what they can
do for themselves through local and private effort. There is no magic attached
to tax dollars that have been to Washington and back.
In short, big government is not an issue -
not at a time when the party which last made it an issue has expanded the
Federal payroll to an all-time high, operated at an $18 billion deficit,
increased the debt limit five times, caused the highest peacetime deficit
in the history of the United States, and spent two-thirds as much money
as all of the previous administrations put together.
I do not believe in big government - but I
believe in effective government - in a government which meets its appropriate
responsibilities, and meets them effectively. Economic policy can result
from governmental inaction as well as governmental action. What you are
entitled to hear from me is: Why is a change necessary - and what changes
would I adopt?
I start from the premise that the performance
of the Republican Party has been inadequate in at least five areas of economic
policy.
1. The first and most comprehensive failure
in our performance has been in our rate of economic growth. From 1953 until
the end of last year, our average annual increase in output - the real
rate of growth - has been only 2.4 percent per year. The rate of increase
in the Soviet Union, on the testimony of Mr. Allen Dulles, of the CIA,
has been better than 7 percent.
It is easy to juggle these figures, or dismiss
them as "growthmanship." It is easy to say that comparisons with the Soviet
Union are not valid, because of the difference in base and method. But
the fact remains that our growth rate is too low - that it was higher in
the years 1947 to 1953 - and I think this is perhaps of most significance
- that it is below that not only of the Soviet Union but of the more mature
industrialized economies of Western Europe and Japan, Germany, France,
and Italy. That should concern us all.
2. My second concern is unemployment. Between
November 1957 and August 1960 the rate of jobless workers, seasonally adjusted,
has been below 5 percent of the labor force in only 3 months out of 34.
Last month it was 5.9 percent. Adding those who are on short time, this
means that the total of unemployment and underemployment is not less than
7 percent of the labor force. And in some areas - in Detroit, San Diego,
in steel, coal, and textile towns - the proportion is much higher.
3. Third, I am concerned about the periodic
recurrence of recessions. There have been two recessions since 1952 and,
as the Wall Street Journal has warned, a third could now be underway. During
a recession, as unemployment rises, profits decline, and farmers and small
businessmen suffer especially, the growth of the gross national product
slows to a halt, and public revenues shrink. A free economy cannot have
a perfectly regular rate of growth. But we cannot continue to view these
sharp periodic setbacks with equanimity when we could ease their severity
and slow their duration.
4. I am concerned with the steady upward drift
in prices since World War II. Industrial prices have been stable only during
weak spots - the 1953-54 and 1957-58 recessions and the recent months of
downward drift. The Consumers' Price Index would have risen even more sharply
if farm prices had not declined during the same period. During the decade
of the 1950's, industrial prices increased, on the average, nearly 30 percent
- some increasing still more. Steel prices, for example, have been approximately
doubling themselves every decade.
I believe that reasonable stability in the
price level is a vital goal of economic policy. By pursuing this goal we
keep faith with those who save; we protect those who live on a fixed income;
and we build world confidence in the soundness and integrity of the dollar.
It is equally urgent that we do not achieve this kind of stability at the
expense of any one group in the economy, such as farmers - or at the price
of recessions, unemployment, and stagnation. I believe we can keep our
prices stable while maintaining higher and more stable levels of production
and employment.
5. Finally, there is proper concern about
our balance of payments and the recent drain of gold. It is vital that
we keep our exports well ahead of our imports in order to cover our commitments
abroad - our military forces around the world, our diplomatic obligations,
our military aid, and our assistance to underdeveloped nations. But there
is still no substitute - for the Nation as well as the individual - for
a good cash position; and the difference between our exports and imports
today (although somewhat better than last year) is still not enough to
meet our obligations around the world.
It is in these five areas of concern - economic
growth, unemployment, the business cycle, price stability, and our balance
of payments - that I think we can do better, that I think we must do better.
And I believe that most businessmen share my concern - and share my belief
that we can do better.
What changes are needed? What policies would
be successful?
First, a Democratic administration would use
monetary policies more flexibly than the Republicans. The Republicans adopted
the seemingly simple and easy policy of tightening interest rates when
demand was strong and prices were rising - a principle that requires allowing
rates to fall when the economy needed stimulation. But the facts of the
matter are that each successive peak and each successive valley in the
economy has ended with higher and higher interest rates - with the result
that paradoxically high rates accompanied heavy unemployment, low production,
and a slack economy.
For this policy has not worked. By periodically
cutting back on investment, it has held back on a normal, healthy rate
of growth. By staying tight too long, as it did in the fall of 1957 when
the storm signals were already flying for the recession of 1958 - by the
Federal Reserve Board's tight credit - by the defense stretchout of 1958
- it helped to bring on that and other recessions. And, by penalizing most
those who must borrow from banks for investment or homebuilding, it is
weighted in favor of the larger corporations, which have access to the
open market or which can invest from their own earnings.
A Democratic administration would not rdy
upon lopsided monetary policy. It would maintain greater flexibility for
investment, expansion and growth. It would not raise interest rates as
an end in itself. Without rejecting monetary stringency as a potential
method of curbing extravagant booms, we would make more use of other tools.
Secondly, and in this connection, we would
use the budget as an instrument of economic stabilization. I believe that
the budget should normally be balanced. The exception apart from a serious
or extraordinary threat to the national security is serious unemployment.
In boom times we should run a surplus and retire the debt. When men and
plant are unemployed in serious numbers, the opposite policies are in order.
We should seek a balanced budget over the course of the business cycle
with surpluses during good times more than offsetting the deficits which
may be incurred during slumps.
I submit that this is not a radical fiscal
policy. It is a conservative policy.
But we must have a flexible, balanced and,
above all, coordinated monetary and fiscal policy. I do not, let me make
clear, advocate any changes in the constitution of the Federal Reserve
System. It is important to keep the day-to-day operations of the Federal
Reserve removed from political pressures.
The President's responsibility - if he is
to lead - includes longer range coordination an a direction of economic
policies, subject to our system of checks and balances. And I believe the
Federal Reserve Board - which during the last 8 years has cooperated closely
with this administration - would also cooperate with future strong and
well considered Presidential leadership which expresses the responsible
will of Congress and the people.
Third, I believe that the next administration
must work sympathetically and closely with labor and management to develop
wage and price policies that are consistent with stability. We can no longer
afford the large erratic movements in prices which jeopardize domestic
price stability and our balance of payments abroad. Nor is there a place
for the kind of ad hoc last-minute intervention which settled the steel
strike.
Without resorting to the compulsion of wage
or price controls, the President of the United States must actively use
the powers of leadership in pursuit of well-defined goals of price stability.
For those powers - of reason, moral suasion, and informed public opinion,
influencing public opinion - have by no means been exhausted to date.
Fourth, we must make certain that there is
proper encouragement to plant modernization. Postwar Europe has a new and
modern industrial plant. So has the Soviet Union. We cannot compete if
our plants are out of date or second rate. Wherever we can be certain that
tax revision, including accelerated depreciation, will encourage the modernization
of our capital plant - and not be a disguise for tax avoidance - we should
proceed with such revision. It is sound, liberal policy to see that our
productive plant is the best and most modern in the world.
And a combination of these policies with policies
of full employment can help us realize the full promise of automation.
Taxes affect not only revenue but also growth and a new administration
must review carefully but with imagination our entire tax policy to see
that these objectives are being met.
Fifth, we must pay equal attention to the
men that man the plant. Growth requires that we have the best trained and
best educated labor force in the world. Investment in manpower is just
as important as investment in facilities. Yet today we waste precious resources
when the bright youngster, who should have been a skilled draftsman or
able scientist or engineer must remain a pick-and-shovel worker because
he never had a chance to develop his talents. It is time we geared our
educational systems to meet the increased demand of modern industry - strengthening
our public schools, our colleges, and our vocational programs for retraining
unemployed workers.
Finally, we must remember that, in the long
run, the public development of natural resources too vast for private capital
- and federally encouraged research, especially basic research - are both
sources of tremendous economic progress.
In all of these areas, I believe we can do
a better job. If our economy is vigorous, efficient, and expanding, and
if our prices are stable and competitive, then business will create the
jobs necessary for full employment and recover our old position in world
and domestic markets. And as we continue to invest in other countries,
other countries I hope will invest here. Our balance of payments will be
strong, and we can cease to worry about the outflow of gold. I do not minimize
the importance of the outflow of gold, especially in the short run, especially
at the present time. And I would never want us in the position of being
forced to tinker with the dollar in order to maintain our competitive position
in the world export market. Our balance-of-payments position must
be recognized in framing our domestic economic policies. It is a problem
we must face, with all its implications. It affects our monetary policy
as well as our wage and price policy, and they are all affected by our
competitive position with the free world, the underdeveloped world, and
with the managed economy of the Soviet world itself.
This will involve the policies of other nations
as well. For most of the world still relives the days of the dollar shortage.
Though it no longer exists, the habit of behaving as though it did exist
- of saving dollars by discriminating against American goods - has not
yet disappeared. Our goods are still subject to special restrictions in
many markets. We must work hard to get these restrictions removed. We should
explore market and credit reports as methods of encouraging exports.
And we should work with the creation of the
larger trading units in Europe - the Common Market and the free trade area.
These will strengthen Europe; they need not divide it. But it is a development
of long-range importance to the United States and Latin America. Is there
a chance that the trend toward these trading communities is passing us
by - that we will awaken one day to find ourselves the great outsider?
I would like to be certain that this is not happening.
We must also take a new look at our programs
of economic aid. I firmly support such aid - but we must be sure that it
is well and efficiently used - and increasingly, we must make assistance
to the under-developed nations a cooperative endeavor of the well-to-do
developed lands, cooperatively financed, those lands we assisted after
World War II.
Here, as so often, economies and economics
merge with foreign policy. After World War II the United States could have
taken advantage of its extraordinary financial position; but in the interest
of the free world we used imagination and restraint. Today, could we not
fairly ask our friends to show similar restraint in dealing with gold and
in helping to carry, according to their ability, a larger share of the
financial burden of defending the free world and aiding the underdeveloped
nations?
In this age, when capitalism is on trial,
we cannot have a policy that is less than the best. Indeed, we can perpetuate
capitalism only by making it work - by serving it as well as it has served
us. This, I think, is the economic issue in this campaign.
It is between the contented and the concerned;
between the inert and the active; between those who look back in satisfaction
and those who look forward with hope. I am proud to be the candidate of
the concerned, of the hopeful, and of those who look for progress. I am
proud to be the candidate of my party.